Baseball – 2018 SCT Watch

The Shore Conference Tournament seeds come out on Monday night and 28 teams are eligible to join the field. As always, there are many factors to consider: head-to-head results vs. overall body of work; how much division standing should matter; is it better to grab big wins or avoid bad losses? A lot of it is philosophical and in this space, typically the division standings are more a starting point than a guide, head-to-head matters when teams have similar bodies of work, and big wins mean more than bad losses. Consider those my biases.

With that in mind, here is a look at how the Shore Conference Tournament field could shake out based on games played through Saturday. Monday's games still matter for positioning in the field, so a lot can still change based on the results of the games that finish up before the seeding meeting.

1. Christian Brothers Academy (18-2, 13-1)

Division Wins: Colts Neck (2), Freehold Boro (2), Freehold Twp. (2), Howell (2), Manalapan (2), Neptune (2), Howell, Marlboro
Division Losses: At Marlboro
Non-Division Wins: At St. Lucie West Centennial (Fla.), vs. Wall, vs. Pope John, Ocean (MCT), Middletown South (MCT)
Non-Division Losses: Red Bank Catholic (MCT)
Monday opponent: Vs. Hun
Why They’re Here: Despite losing to Red Bank Catholic in the MCT semifinals, the Colts still have the best resume and defeated a Wall team that beat Red Bank Catholic twice.

2. Wall (17-3, 13-1)

Division Wins: Long Branch (2), Middletown North (2), Middletown South (2), Monmouth (2), Ocean (2), Red Bank Catholic (2), Manasquan
Division Losses: At Manasquan
Non-Division Wins: At Holmdel, at Jackson Liberty, East Brunswick, at Rumson-Fair Haven
Non-Division Losses: Vs. CBA, Colts Neck (MCT)
Why They’re Here: Two wins over RBC keep the Crimson Knights in the top-two. The fact that CBA and Wall are still Nos. 1 and 2 reflect how far out ahead of the pack they were heading into the MCT, which is why their earlier-than-expected exits don’t drop them in the SCT seeding, at least not in this space.

3. Red Bank Catholic (16-5, 10-4)

Division Wins: Long Branch (2), Manasquan (2), Middletown North (2), Middletown South (2), at Monmouth, Ocean
Division Losses: Wall (2), Monmouth, at Ocean
Non-Division Wins: Freehold Boro (MCT), Long Branch (MCT), at CBA (MCT), vs. St. Rose (MCT), Red Bank
Non-Division Losses: Vs. Delbarton
Monday opponent: Vs. Colts Neck
Why They’re Here: The Caseys have to be considered for the No. 1 seed after winning the MCT, but the regular-season has to count significantly as well. RBC had a strong B North campaign but did finish three games behind Wall and loss to the Crimson Knights twice.

4. Jackson Liberty (18-3, 13-1)

Division Wins: Barnegat (2), Donovan Catholic (2), Lakewood (2), Manchester (2), Pinelands (2), Point Boro (2), at Lacey
Division Losses: Lacey
Non-Division Wins: Jackson Memorial, Central, Donovan Catholic (OCT), Lacey (OCT), at Toms River South
Non-Division Losses: Wall, Toms River East (OCT)
Why They’re Here: Even with Saturday's loss to Toms River East, Jackson Liberty still sits comfortably at No. 4 with a head-to-head win over Jackson Memorial. If Toms River North beats Jackson Memorial on Monday, the case to bump Jackson Liberty down gets a little stronger, but Toms River North has three teams to jump and none are glaringly better than the Lions.

5. Jackson Memorial (19-4, 11-3)

Division Wins: Brick (2), Brick Memorial (2), Toms River East (2), Toms River North (2), Central, Southern, Toms River South
Division Losses: At Central, at Southern, at Toms River South
Non-Division Wins: At Freehold Twp., St. Rose, vs. Millville, Lenape, Brick (OCT), Central (OCT), at Colts Neck, at Bayonne
Non-Division Losses: At Jackson Liberty
Monday opponent: At Toms River North (OCT)
Why They’re Here: With two wins over Toms River North, Jackson Memorial should be the first A South team seeded as of this posting, although that could change after the two A South rivals meet for a third time in the OCT semifinals on Monday.

6. St. Rose (17-5, 12-1)

Division Wins: Asbury Park (2), Henry Hudson (2), Keansburg (2), Keyport (2), Mater Dei (2), Point Beach, at Ranney
Division Losses: At Point Beach
Non-Division Wins: Middletown North, Red Bank (MCT), at Manalapan (MCT), at Monmouth (MCT), at Raritan (MCT)
Non-Division Losses: At Jackson Memorial, Freehold Twp., vs. Red Bank Catholic (MCT), Marlboro
Why They’re Here: With Toms River North losing to Freehold Township on Thursday night, the door is now open for St. Rose to land at No. 6, even with its own loss to Marlboro. Manalapan also has a loss vs. Marlboro and the Purple Roses are still sitting on that head-to-head win over Manalapan.

7. Manalapan (18-5, 10-4)

Division Wins: Colts Neck (2), Freehold Boro (2), Freehold Twp. (2), Neptune (2), at Howell, Marlboro
Division Losses: CBA (2), Howell, at Marlboro
Non-Division Wins: Vs. Fairport (N.Y.), vs. Louisville Male (Ky.), vs. Lenape, Bayonne, at Toms River North, Hamilton West, at Old Bridge, Brick
Non-Division Losses: St. Rose (MCT)
Why They’re Here: Manalapan might be stuck at No. 7 because of a head-to-head loss to St. Rose, but there is now very little that any team could do to knock the Braves from the No. 7 spot as well. The Braves now have a head-to-head 11-1 win over Toms River North and also have two wins over a Freehold Township team that just beat the Mariners.

8. Toms River North (14-6, 11-3)

Division Wins: Brick (2), Brick Memorial (2), Southern (2), Toms River East (2), Toms River South (2), Central
Division Losses: Jackson Memorial (2), at Central
Non-Division Wins: Gloucester Catholic, Barnegat (OCT), Pinelands (OCT)
Non-Division Losses: Washington Twp., Manalapan, Freehold Twp.
Monday opponents: Vs. Jackson Memorial (OCT)
Why They’re Here: Thursday's loss to Freehold Township might have sealed Toms River North's fate as the No. 8 seed, regardless of whether or not the Mariners beat Jackson Memorial. A win would mean the two would have the same record against common opponents (Jackson Memorial beat Freehold Township), including the head-to-head games. With Jackson Memorial already owning a two-game edge in the head-to-head and St. Rose and Manalapan also owning head-to-head edges, it's hard to see how the Mariners move. They are still dangerous, but they will have to be dangerous at No. 8.

9. Central (12-7, 9-5)

Division Wins: Brick (2), Southern (2), at Brick Memorial, Jackson Memorial, at Toms River East, Toms River North, Toms River South
Division Losses: At Brick Memorial, at Jackson Memorial, Toms River East, at Toms River North, at Toms River South
Non-Division Wins: At Pinelands, at Lacey, Southern (OCT)
Non-Division Losses: At Jackson Liberty, at Jackson Memorial (OCT)
Monday opponent: At Point Boro
Why They’re Here: Central is not in the discussion for a top-eight spot, but the Golden Eagles have wins over two teams in that top-eight (Jackson Memorial and Toms River North). Friday's loss to Central presents a case for them to drop but, that's the only loss the Eagles have to a team outside the field and the two wins vs. the top 10 still matter.

10. Raritan (15-4, 10-2)

Division Wins: Holmdel (2), Red Bank (2), Rumson-Fair Haven (2), Shore (2), at Matawan, St. John Vianney
Division Losses: Matawan, at St. John Vianney
Non-Division Wins: Vs. Barnegat, Mater Dei (MCT), at Freehold Twp. (MCT), Colts Neck (MCT), Carteret
Non-Division Losses: At Marlboro, St. Rose (MCT)
Monday opponent: At Manchester
Why They’re Here: Raritan does not have any wins over teams in front of them, but the Rockets won A Central and avenged their only two losses in the division. The Toms River North loss to Freehold Township gives Raritan an opening to move into the top eight, which it might be able to do if Toms River North loses to Jackson Memorial for a third time on Monday.

11. Freehold Township (10-9, 7-7)

Division Wins: Howell (2), Neptune (2), at Colts Neck, at Freehold Boro, Marlboro
Division Losses: CBA (2), Manalapan (2), Colts Neck, Freehold Boro, at Marlboro
Non-Division Wins: vs. St. Rose, Middletown South, at Toms River North
Non-Division Losses: Jackson Memorial, Raritan (MCT)
Why They’re Here: Freehold Township has come on strong this week with wins over Middletown South and Toms River North and now owns two wins over teams in the top 10 (TR North and St. Rose). A head-to-head loss to Raritan probably caps the Patriots at No. 11.

12. Toms River East (11-8, 7-7)

Division Wins: Brick (2), Toms River South (2), at Brick Memorial, at Central, Southern
Division Losses: Jackson Memorial (2), Toms River North (2), Brick Memorial, Central, at Southern
Non-Division Wins: Point Beach (OCT), Point Boro (OCT), Manchester, at Jackson Liberty (OCT)
Non-Division Losses: At Lacey
Why They’re Here: Toms River East only jumps one spot after knocking off No. 4 Jackson Liberty, mostly because the Raiders still have two losses to teams outside the field, one more loss to a team behind them in the seeding and lost two games to a Toms River North team that Freehold Township beat this week. All that being said, the Raiders are a team with some serious momentum and that generally plays well in the seeding meeting.

13. Monmouth (13-7, 9-5)

Division Wins: Long Branch (2), Middletown North (2), Middletown South (2), at Manasquan, at Ocean, at Red Bank Catholic
Division Losses: Wall (2), Manasquan, Ocean, Red Bank Catholic
Non-Division Wins: Ranney, Neptune, Holmdel (SCT), Mater Dei
Non-Division Losses: Vs. Brick, St. Rose (MCT)
Monday opponent: Vs. Lacey
Why They’re Here: Monmouth’s win over RBC is better than any win Raritan, Freehold Township or Toms River East has, but the loss to Brick hurts since Toms River East beat the Dragons twice and it is a worse loss than either Raritan or Freehold Township has. Monmouth also gets hurt by Manasquan, Ocean and Middletown South all playing their way out of the tournament this week, giving B North - which performed well in the Monmouth County Tournament - just three teams in the field.

14. Freehold Boro (12-8, 8-6)

Division Wins: Howell (2), Marlboro (2), Neptune (2), Colts Neck, at Freehold Twp.
Division Losses: CBA (2), Manalapan (2), at Colts Neck, Freehold Twp.
Non-Division Wins: At Ocean, Middletown North (MCT), Long Branch, Middletown South
Non-Division Losses: At Point Boro, at Red Bank Catholic (MCT)
Why They’re Here: The Colonials appear to be picking up some steam and while their pitching is still somewhat unpredictable, the lineup is dangerous and the resume solid enough for a home game. They finished ahead of Freehold Township in the division because they swept Marlboro, but Freehold Township's work outside of A North is stronger than that of the Colonials, hence the jump by Boro's crosstown rival.

15. Marlboro (9-9, 6-8)

Division Wins: Neptune (2), CBA, Colts Neck, Freehold Twp., Manalapan
Division Losses: Freehold Boro (2), Howell (2), at CBA, at Colts Neck, at Freehold Twp., at Manalapan
Non-Division Wins: Raritan, at St. John Vianney, at St. Rose
Non-Division Losses: Long Branch (MCT)
Why They're Here: With two losses to Freehold Boro and a divisional record two games worse than the Colonials, this is as high as Marlboro can climb. Still, the Mustangs have four wins over teams in the top 10 - CBA, Manalapan, St. Rose and Raritan - which should at least warrant a discussion about a top-10 spot, even if it ends up being a bit of a reach.

16. Point Pleasant Boro (13-6, 10-4)

Division Wins: Barnegat (2), Donovan Catholic (2), Lakewood (2), Pinelands (2), Lacey, Manchester
Division Losses: Jackson Liberty (2), at Lacey, at Manchester
Non-Division Wins: Rumson-Fair Haven, Freehold Boro, Brick Memorial (OCT)
Non-Division Losses: Toms River East (OCT), Matawan
Why They’re Here: Losing to Matawan dealt Point Boro a blow in this projection, but the Panthers still have a shot at a home game. Ocean falling out of the picture strengthen that case, but Howell presents a challenge as well as a team coming out of A North that has a win over No. 7 Manalapan. With a win over Freehold Boro - a team that beat Howell twice - the Panthers appear to be in good shape.

17. Howell (10-10, 6-8)

Division Wins: Colts Neck (2), Marlboro (2), vs. Manalapan, Neptune
Division Losses: CBA (2), Freehold Boro (2), Freehold Twp. (2), Manalapan, at Neptune
Non-Division Wins: At Middletown North, Manchester, at Middletown South, vs. Rumson-Fair Haven
Non-Division Losses: At Manasquan, at Middletown South (MCT)
Why They're Here: The Rebels' wild double-header sweep on Friday night secured a spot in the SCT and fit the Howell persona perfectly. It's often a roller-coaster ride, but Howell is never out of a game and the Rebels have a resume to reflect that. A home game might be a little much to ask, but the win over Manalapan and two over Marlboro are a good place to start the pitch.

18. Pinelands (9-9, 8-6)

Division Wins: Donovan Catholic (2), Lacey (2), Lakewood (2), at Barnegat, at Manchester
Division Losses: Jackson Liberty (2), Point Boro (2), Manchester, Barnegat
Non-Division Wins: At Manchester (OCT)
Non-Division Losses: Central, at Red Bank Catholic, at Toms River North (OCT)
Why They’re Here: The Wildcats have played a quality schedule and while they have not beaten any of the top teams and also have a loss to Barnegat, they also have a healthy Joey Ventresca back, as well as two wins over Lacey.

19. Lacey (11-10, 8-6)

Division Wins: Donovan Catholic (2), Lakewood (2), Barnegat, at Jackson Liberty, Manchester, Point Boro
Division Losses: Pinelands (2), at Barnegat, Jackson Liberty, at Manchester, at Point Boro
Non-Division Wins: At Toms River South, Toms River East, Toms River South (OCT)
Non-Division Losses: Vs. Brick Memorial, Central, at Brick, at Jackson Liberty (OCT)
Monday opponent: At Monmouth
Why They’re Here: A win over Jackson Liberty, Toms River East and two vs. Toms River South is awfully impressive and if not for some losses to teams out of the SCT (Barnegat, Brick Memorial and Brick), Lacey would easily be in the top-16. As it is, they can reasonably lobby for a home game.

20. Toms River South (10-10, 7-7)

Division Wins: Brick (2), Southern (2), Brick Memorial, Central, Jackson Memorial
Division Losses: Toms River East (2), Toms River North (2), at Brick Memorial, at Central, at Jackson Memorial
Non-Division Wins: Allentown, Ferris, Trenton Catholic
Non-Division Losses: Lacey, at Lacey (OCT), Jackson Liberty
Why They’re Here: The two losses to Lacey has to keep Toms River South behind the Lions, but a win over Jackson Memorial will keep the Indians in the top 20. The Toms River South grounds crew is the MVP this week for getting the field ready to play Trenton Catholic on Saturday, a game the Indians needed to win to get into the tournament.

21. St. John Vianney (10-6, 8-4)

Division Wins: Holmdel (2), Matawan (2), Shore (2), Raritan, at Rumson-Fair Haven
Division Losses: Red Bank (2), at Raritan, Rumson-Fair Haven
Non-Division Wins: Cranford, St. Joseph by the Sea (N.Y.)
Non-Division Losses: Marlboro, Long Branch (MCT)
Monday opponent: Vs. Brick
Why They’re Here: The Lancers get the edge over Rumson because St. John Vianney beat Raritan, the first-place team in A Central, during the regular season. It's not quite as good as Toms River South's win over Jackson Memorial, which will probably keep the Lancers just outside the top 20.

22. Rumson-Fair Haven (10-7, 8-4)

Division Wins: Holmdel (2), Matawan (2), Shore (2), at Red Bank, at St. John Vianney
Division Losses: Raritan (2), Red Bank, St. John Vianney
Non-Division Wins: At Keansburg, at Manasquan
Non-Division Losses: At Point Boro, Wall, vs. Howell
Why They’re Here: Although tied for second in A Central, the Bulldogs did not beat Raritan and despite a win over Manasquan on Thursday, their out-of-division slate is not quite bulky enough to jump Vianney and its win over Raritan.

23. Matawan (9-7, 6-6)

Division Wins: Holmdel (2), Red Bank (2), at Raritan, at Shore
Division Losses: Rumson-Fair Haven (2), St. John Vianney (2), Raritan, Shore
Non-Division Wins: Vs. Long Branch, Carteret, at Point Boro
Non-Division Losses: At Ocean (MCT)
Monday opponent: At Neptune
Why They’re Here: Matawan picked up a big statement win over Point Boro, which demonstrated the Huskies can still beat quality teams despite the fact that they have struggled over the last couple of weeks. With that win, plus one over Raritan, Matawan should come in ahead of Manchester and Point Beach.

24. Point Pleasant Beach (13-6, 12-2)

Division Wins: Asbury Park (2), Henry Hudson (2), Keansburg (2), Keyport (2), Ranney (2), Mater Dei, St. Rose
Division Losses: At St. Rose, at Mater Dei
Non-Division Wins: Vs. Lakewood
Non-Division Losses: Manasquan, Edison, at Toms River East (OCT), Neptune
Why They’re Here: Point Beach's win over St. Rose put the Garnet Gulls in position to make the top 20, but there was not enough margin for error to survive a loss to Neptune this week, which entered the game 1-16.

25. Manchester (9-8, 9-5)

Division Wins: Barnegat (2), Donovan Catholic (2), Lakewood (2), Lacey, at Pinelands, Point Boro
Division Losses: Jackson Liberty (2), at Lacey, Pinelands, at Point Boro
Non-Division Wins: None
Non-Division Losses: At Howell, Pinelands (OCT), at Toms River East
Monday opponent: Vs. Raritan
Why They’re Here: For the last few years, Manchester has been much better in B South that outside of it relative to its division mates. Teams aspire to perform well within the division and Manchester should be commended for that, but a lopsided loss to Howell in its only game against a non-B South team is going to hold the Hawks back. Manchester had Toms River East on the ropes early but lost in the bottom of the seventh on Friday, which would have been a big win given Toms River East's OCT success. The Hawks still have a chance to climb if they can beat Raritan on Monday.

26. Mater Dei Prep (11-7, 10-4)

Division Wins: Asbury Park (2), Henry Hudson (2), Keansburg (2), Keyport (2), Point Beach, Ranney
Division Losses: St. Rose (2), at Point Beach, at Ranney
Non-Division Wins: Vs. Shore
Non-Division Losses: At Brick, at Raritan (MCT), at Monmouth
Monday opponent: At Manasquan
Why They’re Here: With a win over Point Beach and a solid non-divisional win over Shore, Mater Dei should get some consideration to be seeded ahead of some of the A Central teams and perhaps Manchester. Ultimately, those teams have probably done enough to hold off the Seraphs, but Mater Dei has done a nice job since an early-season loss to Ranney.

27. Keansburg (10-8, 8-6)

Division Wins: Asbury Park (2), Henry Hudson (2), Keyport (2), Ranney (2)
Division Losses: Mater Dei (2), Point Beach (2), St. Rose (2)
Non-Division Wins: Dunellen, at Calvary Christian
Non-Division Losses: At Shore, Rumson-Fair Haven
Why They’re Here: The Titans beat Ranney handily in the two meetings between the teams and thus stay out of the last spot.

28. Ranney (10-10, 7-6)

Division Wins: Asbury Park (2), Henry Hudson (2), Keyport (2), Mater Dei
Division Losses: Keansburg (2), Point Beach (2), at Mater Dei, St. Rose
Non-Division Wins: Calvary Christian, Wardlaw-Hartridge, Academy for Urban Leadership
Non-Division Losses: At Monmouth, Shore, Red Bank, at Gill St. Bernard's
Monday opponent: Vs. Lakewood
Chances to Qualify: Ranney qualified for the baseball SCT for the first time in program history, no small feat for a team still early in its Shore Conference membership and with a roster full of players that will be back next year.

Eliminated

Ocean (11-12, 6-8)

Division Wins: Long Branch (2), Manasquan, Middletown North, at Monmouth, Red Bank Catholic
Division Losses: Middletown South (2), Wall (2), at Manasquan, at Middletown North, Monmouth, at Red Bank Catholic
Non-Division Wins: A.L. Johnson, Matawan (MCT), at Red Bank, at Hudson Catholic, Holmdel
Non-Division Losses: Freehold Boro, at CBA (MCT), Monroe, Neptune

Middletown South (9-12, 6-8)

Division Wins: Long Branch (2), Ocean (2), Manasquan, at Middletown North
Division Losses: Monmouth (2), Red Bank Catholic (2), Wall (2), at Manasquan, Middletown North
Non-Division Wins: At Colts Neck, vs. Colts Neck, Howell (MCT)
Non-Division Losses: At CBA (MCT), at Freehold Twp., at Freehold Boro, Howell