The Shore Daily, 3/2/15
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Before each basketball season, every team dreams of being the last ones standing by the middle of March, and now that time has arrived.
The NJSIAA Tournament kicks off tonight with the Group IV and Group II sectional brackets in action, followed by Group I, Group III and Non-Public A tomorrow and then Non-Public B and the Group IV and II quarterfinals on Wednesday.
The two defending sectional champions on the boys side are Matawan in Central Jersey Group II and Point Beach in Central Jersey Group I. The Huskies are the No. 11 seed this season, while the Garnet Gulls are the No. 3 seed. On the girls side, Shore Conference Tournament finalists St. Rose (Non-Public B) and Manasquan (Group II) are defending overall Group champions, and Middletown South (Central Jersey Group III), St. John Vianney (Non-Public South A) and Colts Neck (Central Jersey Group IV) are defending sectional champions.
Matt Manley has the preview of the brackets that kick off tonight on the boys side. A few quick thoughts on the Shore's chances on both sides.
Looking at the boys brackets, on paper, Central Jersey Group II and I, which the Shore won last season, look like the best bets. Central Jersey Group II has top-seeded Lakewood, newly-minted SCT champion Rumson-Fair Haven, defending champion Matawan, a fifth-seeded Manchester team, and second-seeded Manasquan, which beat Rumson twice during the regular season. There is no juggernaut out-of-area team in that bracket, so that bracket could be a mini-SCT with some great potential match-ups.
In Central Jersey Group I, I think Point Beach has a good shot to win its third straight sectional title, with a primary obstacle being the Shore Regional team that the Garnet Gulls beat in last year's championship game. Perth Amboy Tech and Piscataway Tech are the top two seeds, but the Shore has done a consistent job of sending the tech schools back to the drawing board the past few years. The Shore has owned this bracket, with Point Beach winning it the last two years after Asbury Park dominated it for years and Academy Charter also won a title.
The Shore also has a solid shot in Central Jersey Group IV, where East Brunswick is always tough but no team looms over the bracket like defending champion Ewing does behind scoring machine Trey Lowe, a Temple recruit, in Central Jersey Group III. The Shore has some of its best teams in CJ III, including Neptune, Wall, and last year's runner-up, Red Bank, but it's going to take a big-time performance to take out Lowe and top-seeded Ewing in their own building.
Teams like Marlboro and Howell are underdogs in CJ IV, but second-seeded Freehold Township has a shot to make some noise, although that first-round game against Brick Memorial could be trouble. Fourth-seeded Manalapan has played a lot of good teams tough this season and also could be a factor. Colts Neck as the No. 3 seed is also dangerous, and the Cougars would love nothing more than to finish the job for their first sectional title after some near-misses in recent seasons.
Christian Brothers Academy certainly is a contender in Non-Public South A, and the Colts got a pretty good draw. If the seeds hold true, they would see a tough Camden Catholic team in the semifinals and if they get by them, a St. Augustine team ranked No. 1 in South Jersey would most likely be waiting on the other end, and CBA would have to go down there to face them. Barring any upsets, Red Bank Catholic would face Camden Catholic in the quarterfinals, so if the Caseys pulled off an upset, we could have RBC-CBA part II for the right to go to a sectional final.
That bracket also contains reigning Tournament of Champions winner St. Joseph's-Metuchen, which obviously isn't the same team it was last season with Kentucky star Karl-Anthony Towns, but still could be a problem for St. Augustine on the other side of the bracket.
The Shore can forget about Non-Public South B considering the No. 1 team in the state, Roselle Catholic, is in that bracket along with Gill St. Bernard's, Holy Spirit, Rutgers Prep, Cardinal McCarrick and Trenton Catholic. That is the toughest section in the state, period.
In South Jersey, Toms River North is the No. 1 seed in South Jersey Group IV, but it's not going to be easy. The Rancocas Valley team they will most likely see in the quarterfinals is going to be a lot to handle, then it's probably a tough Cherokee or Lenape team after that. On the other side of the bracket is perennial power Atlantic City as the No. 2 seed, who could be matched up with Southern in the quarterfinals, one season after Southern stunned the Vikings. The good news for Toms River North is that at least all of its games are on its home floor at Pine Belt Arena.
South Jersey Group III has often been a fairly wide-open bracket, but top-seeded Delsea has been a top 10 team in South Jersey much of the season, and Central could have to travel down there in the quarterfinals. Tymere Berry and Toms River South have a shot to make a good run from the other side of the bracket as the No. 3 seed, as No. 2 seed Winslow Township isn't even a top 15 team in South Jersey. I could see a Delsea-Toms River South final happening in this one.
Barnegat is the only Shore team in South Jersey Group II and is a big underdog, so even one win by the Bengals would be considered a success.
On the girls side, Manasquan and St. Rose are both favorites to repeat their Group titles. Manasquan's main challenger in Central Jersey Group II looks to be Rumson-Fair Haven, who the Warriors already beat twice during the regular season in Class A Central. I would peg Manasquan as the favorite to win the Tournament of Champions right now after recent wins over St. John Vianney and then St. Rose in the SCT final. The Warriors made last season's TOC final, losing to Shabazz, a team that will not be a factor this season.
St. Rose is going to have to do some heavy-lifting in Non-Public South B, as top-seeded Roselle Catholic is a top 15 team in the state along with potential semifinal opponent Patrick School. St. Rose then would most likely see Morris Catholic, a top 10 team in the state, in the overall Non-Public B final.
After winning its first sectional title since 1979 last season, Middletown South is the favorite to repeat in Central Jersey Group III, where it will most likely again have to go through the team it beat last season, Neptune, to claim the crown. If the Eagles get by that game, they have a good shot to win the whole enchilada in Group III behind junior star Stephanie Karcz.
In Central Jersey Group IV, Monroe is the favorite and Sayreville is a top contender. The winner of a potential Freehold Township-Marlboro showdown in the quarterfinals looks like the Shore's best bet, depending on how the Colts Neck-Brick Memorial winner fares against Sayreville in the quarterfinals. In Central Jersey Group I, Shore could be a sleeper after having to battle all the leviathans in Class A Central this season.
Top-seeded St. John Vianney is the favorite to repeat in Non-Public South A. The anticipated showdown involving the Lancers is the Non-Public A final, where they would almost certainly get a rematch with Immaculate Heart Academy, another top-five team in the state that dealt them a heart-breaking two-point loss in last season's championship game.
Among the South Jersey brackets, Southern is the Shore's best hope in South Jersey Group IV, but top-seeded Shawnee on the road in a potential semifinal is a tall order for the Rams. Central is an underdog squad in South Jersey Group III, where perennial power Ocean City is again the favorite.
The best-case scenario for the Shore girls would be that four of the six teams in the TOC field are from our backyard - Manasquan, St. Rose, St. John Vianney and Middletown South. Those were the four semifinalists in the SCT, so it would once again be a royal rumble, this time with the final No. 1 ranking in New Jersey at stake. Throw in Paterson Eastside out of Group IV, and that's a great TOC.
One other quick basketball note - congrats to Manasquan's Marina Mabrey and CBA's Jack Laffey for being this year's recipients of the Kerwin Award as the most outstanding players in the Shore. Read more about that here.
More from Monday:
- A University of Tampa team that includes Wall grad Mitchell Preston beat the Phillies in an exhibition game yesterday.
- A Robert Morris team coached by CBA grad Andy Toole is the No. 2 seed in the upcoming Northeast Conference Tournament in search of its first trip to the big dance since 2010.
- Former Toms River South/Rutgers star Todd Frazier talks about the upcoming season with the Reds.
- From the "insane parents" file, there was a fight at a middle school girls basketball game in the Indianapolis area that involved 40 people.
- Basketball defense has gone from being all about protecting the rim to now focusing on running people off the 3-point line on the perimeter.
- The North Carolina high school player who led the nation with 19 home runs last season is just entering his junior season after a monster sophomore year.
- Talk about bittersweet: As an Oregon wrestler was winning his first state championship on Saturday night, his grandfather had a fatal heart attack in the stands.
On tap for tonight: Wall-to-wall basketball as the NJSIAA Tournament first round kicks things off. I'll end with a great moment from Middletown South basketball over the weekend during a warm-up game for the state tournament. Jill Falvey, a St. Francis (Pa.) recruit who tore her ACL in the preseason and has missed her entire senior season, came back and got a chance to score a basket. Wearing a big brace on her right leg, Falvey started the game against Central, who allowed her to score a lay-up as the crowd gave her a standing ovation. Coach Tom Brennan does it right for the close-knit Eagles, and Central coach John Truhan also was not only classy with that gesture but also one during the preseason when his starting five presented Falvey with flowers during a scrimmage after her injury. Great job by both teams and coaches.
Also, congrats to Truhan, who was recently inducted into the New Jersey Scholastic Coaches Association Hall of Fame for outstanding stints at Toms River South, Colts Neck and now Central. Truhan won his 300th game earlier this season.
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