With Brutal Starts to Seasons, Can Jets or Giants Surprise Anyone in 2020?

If you listen to any (or most) of the NFL pundits, there is not much hope for either the New York Giants or the New York Jets heading into the 2020 season.

The latest ESPN NFL Power Rankings after the draft has both teams inside the bottom seven, with the Jets at 26 and the Giants at 29 (out of 32). For Jets’ fans especially, after they had to watch Tom Brady and the New England Patriots rule the AFC East for nearly two decades, it has to hurt more, knowing that it could have been the Jets, and not the Buffalo Bills, poised to take over the crown in the division.

Both the Giants and Jets have about the same over/under win totals on most sites: 6.5 games. I am not sure (I am) that 6-10 or 7-9 will get a team in the playoffs this season.

But of course, the games are not played on paper. In this season that is sure to be impacted by COVID-19 in one way or another, who knows if something strange could happen with the teams?

Several NJ sports betting sites have some very interesting bets on both teams, although the site shades the Jets to have a better chance to win more than 6.5 games (over 6.5 -130, under 6.5 +110) than the Giants (over 6.5 +110, under 6.5 -130).

Clearly, the books think the Jets have a better chance to get closer to .500 than the Giants.

Both teams have an absolutely brutal start to their campaigns. The Giants face the Steelers (H), Bears (A), 49ers (H), and Rams (A), although home field advantage (other than the cross-country travel) could be muted somewhat if there are no fans in the stadiums.

The Jets open with the Bills (A), 49ers (H: brutal for San Francisco, which will make back to back trips across the country), Colts (A), and Broncos (H).

You can place bets on whether or not the teams will start 0-4 or 4-0, with the Giants to start 0-4 at +240, and to start 4-0 at +8000. The Jets are +400 to start 0-4, and +5000 to start 4-0.

With the 6.5 number in the middle, the exact number of wins bet should see both teams have either six wins or seven as the favorites, and they are. For the Giants, exactly six wins is +270, while exactly seven wins is +290. The odds then go up on either side: if you think the Giants will replicate the Patriots 16-0 season, a $100 bet would return you $2.5 million (+2500000). If you want to be a little more cautious (ha), a 13-3 season is +100000.

The Jets “only” pay +50000 to go 13-3, while six and seven wins are the same price, at +280.

There does seem to be some confidence that the Jets will be an improved team in 2020, but the schedule is absolutely brutal. They face five teams that were in the top 10 NFL offenses in 2019, and six top 10 defenses. While they might be better on paper, their record may actually be worse.

For the Giants, the schedule is also tough, and they have the Eagles and Cowboys in their division. If they got close to .500, it would be a huge step in the right direction.

So over 6.5 or under? I would take the under for both.

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