Boys Basketball – 2024 SCT Watch: The Final Update, Feb. 3

The Shore Conference Tournament bracket will be set by Sunday and after Saturday's games, every team has made their case. Their fate is now in the hands of the seeding committee, which consists of one head coach representing each of the eight Shore Conference divisions.

Before the committee makes it official on Sunday afternoon, let's take one last crack at projecting the field.

St. Rose will be the No. 1 seed, as well as one of the heaviest favorites heading into the SCT in recent memory, with only the 2018-19 Ranney juggernaut in the same class as these Purple Roses. When a top seed is this good, it creates what looks like two different tournaments in one. While there will good teams seeded at Nos. 2 and 3, the rest of the teams in the field would far prefer to take their chances against those teams than to have to deal with St. Rose.

That means the desirable seeds in this tournament will be Nos. 2, 3, 6, 7, 10, 11, 14, 15, 18 and 19. Just about every single coach will be telling their division representative that they would like one of those seeds and would very much like to stay away from Nos. 8, 9, 16 and 17, perhaps even Nos. 4 and 5 as well.

There is a reason every team is likely to lobby for those spots: most of them have a legitimate argument to be seeded at a very wide range of spots outside of No. 1. The list of candidates for the No. 2 seed is growing by the day and with each spot moving down the list, the list of teams that could occupy the spot multiplies.

To sort through the 25 teams in the field beyond St. Rose, the evaluation starts with the entirety of each team’s body of work, with head-to-head results and records vs. common opponents serving as the strongest tiebreakers. With the new division schedule, there are more head-to-head events to consider and while one might think that will add clarity, it might just muddy the waters.

With all of the games now in the books, here is what we're looking at.

Shore Conference Power Point rankings through Feb. 3

Shore Conference Divisional Standings

Through games played on Saturday, Feb. 3

1. St. Rose (21-2, 10-0)

Division/Crossover Wins: Point Boro, at Freehold Boro, Raritan, Long Branch, at Holmdel, Ranney, at Matawan, at Manasquan, Wall, at Neptune, St. John Vianney
Division/Crossover Losses: None
Non-Division Wins: South Shore (N.Y.), at Rutgers Prep, vs. Archbishop Stepinac (N.Y.), vs. George School (Pa.), vs. Bergen Catholic, vs. St. Benedict’s, at Red Bank Catholic, vs. Ramapo, CBA, vs. Union Catholic
Non-Division Losses: Patrick School National, vs. Montverde
Why They’re Here: St. Rose has dominated most of the other would-be contenders for the SCT championship and entered Saturday's Metro Classic showdown against Montverde on an 21-game winning streak. The No. 1 seed is locked up and has been for a while now, if we're being honest.

2. Manasquan (16-5, 9-2)

Division/Crossover Wins: Holmdel, at Long Branch, at Freehold Boro, Neptune, at St. John Vianney, at Raritan, at Wall, at Point Boro, at Matawan
Division/Crossover Losses: St. Rose, Ranney
Non-Division Wins: Red Bank, College Achieve Asbury Park, vs. Marlboro, vs. Red Bank Catholic, vs. CBA, vs. Egg Harbor, at East Orange
Non-Division Losses: At Toms River North, vs. Camden Catholic, vs. Roselle Catholic
Why They’re Here: Manasquan looked like it might have wrapped up the No. 2 seed by picking up an impressive road win over East Orange -- currently No. 2 in power points among teams in the NJSIAA North Jersey Section 2, Group IV field -- earlier in the week. Then the Warriors dropped a home game to Ranney on Thursday, which has created a real debate for the No. 2 seed where there did not appear to be one. With head-to-head wins over CBA and Red Bank, Manasquan is still the choice. Manasquan has more losses than Red Bank and Central, but if you take out the losses to St. Rose and Roselle Catholic -- neither of which played Red Bank or Central -- the loss total is the same, only with better wins to support the case.

3. Red Bank (17-3, 9-1)

Division/Crossover Wins: At Marlboro, CBA, Howell, Manalapan, at Middletown North, Freehold Twp., Middletown South, Colts Neck, at Red Bank Catholic
Division/Crossover Losses: At Rumson
Non-Division Wins: Southern, Long Branch, Port Richard (N.Y.), Ranney, Lacey, Monmouth, Point Beach, Scotch Plains-Fanwood
Non-Division Losses: At Manasquan, vs. Red Bank Catholic
Why They’re Here: With a win at Red Bank Catholic in overtime on Thursday, Red Bank completed a 9-1 run through the North divisions of the Shore Conference. The only other team to match that was CBA and Red Bank beat the Colts head-to-head. Throw in some solid wins over Southern, Ranney and Scotch-Plains Fanwood and Red Bank has done its part in climbing to the No. 3 seed. With Manasquan's recent struggles, Red Bank has a legitimate case to be the No. 2 seed, but the head-to-head loss by 31 points likely ends that argument.

4. Central (18-3, 11-0)

Division/Crossover Wins: At Southern, at Barnegat, at Toms River South, Toms River North, Jackson Memorial, Lacey, at Pinelands, Brick, at Manchester, Brick Memorial, at Toms River East
Division/Crossover Losses: None
Non-Division Wins: At Lawrence, vs. St. John Vianney, Ranney, at Donovan Catholic, Mainland, Lacey, vs. Haddonfield
Non-Division Losses: Marlboro, at Toms River North, vs. Red Bank Catholic
Why They’re Here: Everything broke the way Central needed it to in order to have the best possible argument to be the No. 2 seed. The Golden Eagles handed Haddonfield its first loss (albeit with Haddonfield missing its top scorer), a Mainland team that Central beat in January routed CBA on Saturday and Toms River North beat Rumson. All that being said, Red Bank and Manasquan still have a slight edge in the qualitative strength of schedule, but anyone from Central lobbying for the No. 2 seed is within reason.

5. Christian Brothers Academy (15-5, 9-1)

Division/Crossover Wins: At Rumson, Middletown South, Colts Neck, at Middletown North, Red Bank Catholic, at Marlboro, Howell, at Manalapan, Freehold Twp.
Division/Crossover Losses: At Red Bank
Non-Division Wins: Vs. Mendham, vs. West Morris, Pioneer Academy, Ranney, at Shore, Patrick School
Non-Division Losses: Vs. Randolph, vs. Manasquan, at St. Rose, vs. Mainland
Why They’re Here: The one good thing about CBA losing to Mainland by 30 on Saturday is it could potentially knock the Colts out of the running for a No. 4 or 5 seed and down to No. 6 or 7, where they could avoid St. Rose until the SCT final. CBA's only other blowout loss this season was at St. Rose, so the loss to Mainland -- which lost at Central -- does change the conversation around the Colts heading into Sunday.

6. Holmdel (16-2, 9-2)

Division/Crossover Wins: At Neptune, Ranney, St. John Vianney, at Wall, at Freehold Boro, Matawan, Point Boro, at Long Branch, Raritan
Division/Crossover Losses: At Manasquan, St. Rose
Non-Division Wins: Middletown South, vs. Perth Amboy, vs. Woodbridge, vs. Sayreville, at Toms River North, Jackson Memorial, Freehold Twp.
Non-Division Losses: None
Why They’re Here: Holmdel has been one of the more predictable teams in the field, which is, strangely enough, what makes the Hornets hard to seed. Their only two losses are to St. Rose and Manasquan, but the only other win over a team in the top 10 is at Toms River North. That is enough to keep them away from No. 8, but there are a few teams with more volume when it comes to top 10 wins, which likely relegates Holmdel to the 5-through-7 range.

7. Toms River North (15-5, 9-2)

Division/Crossover Wins: Brick Memorial, Pinelands, at Brick, Toms River East, Manchester, at Barnegat, at Jackson Memorial, Lacey, Toms River South
Division/Crossover Losses: At Central, at Southern
Non-Division Wins: Neptune, Colts Neck, Central, Manasquan, at Ocean, vs. Rumson
Non-Division Losses: At Toms River South, Holmdel, vs. Matawan
Why They’re Here: Toms River North has been the opposite of Holmdel in that the Mariners have some great wins and head-scratching losses. One thing you can definitely say about Toms River North right now is the Mariners love the big stage. They won the WOBM Christmas Classic by beating Colts Neck, Central and Manasquan and on Saturday, they handled Rumson at the Metro Classic. That last win allows Toms River North to jump Rumson and settle into a favorable No. 7 seed.

8. Red Bank Catholic (13-9, 5-5)

Division/Crossover Wins: Middletown North, Marlboro, at Freehold Twp., Manalapan, Rumson
Division/Crossover Losses: At Colts Neck, at CBA, Howell, at Middletown South, Red Bank
Non-Division Wins: Matawan, at Donovan Catholic, vs. Middletown South, vs. Central, Northern Highlands, vs. Red Bank, Hamilton West, vs. Ranney
Non-Division Losses: Vs. Manasquan, at East Orange, St. Rose, vs. St. Peter's Prep
Why They’re Here: RBC is like Toms River North in that the Caseys have some very strong wins, but a couple damaging losses as well. The overall record is more the product of a challenging schedule, but a 13-9 mark looks out of place when compared to the other teams in the top 10. Still, with a wins over Rumson, Donovan Catholic, Red Bank and Central, RBC has shown enough to be considered a top eight team and with a chance to go as high as No. 6.

9. Rumson-Fair Haven (15-5, 8-2)

Division/Crossover Wins: Manalapan, at Marlboro, Red Bank, at Freehold Twp., Colts Neck, at Middletown North, at Howell, Middletown South
Division/Crossover Losses: CBA, at Red Bank Catholic
Non-Division Wins: People’s Prep, Barnegat, vs. North Plainfield, at Rahway, at Long Branch, St. John Vianney, at Jackson Memorial
Non-Division Losses: St. Peter’s Prep, vs. Rutgers Prep, vs. Toms River North
Why They’re Here: Out of all the teams to play on Saturday, Rumson took the biggest hit when it lost to Toms River North by 17. Not only is that a head-to-head loss that drops the Bulldogs below the Mariners, but Holmdel moves ahead with a win over Toms River North and RBC has a case to be ahead of Rumson on the strength of a head-to-head win over the Bulldogs.

10. Donovan Catholic (17-3, 10-0)

Division/Crossover Wins: Jackson Liberty, at Henry Hudson, Keyport, at Keansburg, at Asbury Park, at Monmouth, Ocean, at Shore, at Lakewood, Point Beach
Division/Crossover Losses: None
Non-Division Wins: At Manchester, vs. Brick Memorial, vs. Manchester, Howell, vs. Robbinsville, at Toms River South, Middletown North
Non-Division Losses: Red Bank Catholic, vs. Toms River South, Central
Why They’re Here: The Griffins have steadily climbed the ranks throughout the year and after recent wins over Toms River South and Shore, plus a win over Howell, they should come in at No. 10. Ranney and Manalapan have made late bids for the spot, but as a division champion with only three losses, Donovan Catholic deserves the nod.

11. Ranney (10-8, 7-4)

Division/Crossover Wins: Long Branch, at Matawan, Wall, at Raritan, Neptune, Point Boro, at Manasquan
Division/Crossover Losses: At Holmdel, Freehold Boro, at St. Rose, at St. John Vianney
Non-Division Wins: Jackson Memorial, vs. East Brunswick, vs. Tottenville (N.Y.)
Non-Division Losses: At Red Bank, at Central, at CBA, at Red Bank Catholic
Why They’re Here: Ranney took an important step toward qualifying for the SCT by beating Point Boro on Tuesday, then kicked down the door on Thursday. The Panthers upset Manasquan, 67-64, on the road to officially qualify for the Shore Conference Tournament for the ninth straight season. With that win, Ranney also gives itself a great shot at a first-round home game. There are some losses that complicate Ranney's résumé, but many of them came while second-leading scorer Shaan Nayar was out with a knee injury from which he has since returned.

12. Manalapan (12-6, 4-4)

Division/Crossover Wins: At Middletown South, Middletown North, at Colts Neck, at Freehold Twp., Howell
Division/Crossover Losses: At Rumson, at Red Bank, at Red Bank Catholic, CBA
Non-Division Wins: At Wall, vs. Perth Amboy, at Matawan, Jackson Memorial, at Asbury Park, at West Windsor-Plainsboro North, Lacey, Long Branch
Non-Division Losses: Manchester, vs. Woodbridge
Why They’re Here: The Braves got a huge win Friday at home against Howell in overtime, which nudges them up to No. 12 with a fair case to crack the top 10. The résumé is still a bit light on noteworthy wins and a loss to Manchester stings, but for this area of the seeding, Manalapan looks like a solid choice for the fringes of the top 10.

13. Howell (13-7, 5-4)

Division/Crossover Wins: Middletown South, at Freehold Twp., at Middletown North, at Red Bank Catholic, Marlboro
Division/Crossover Losses: At Red Bank, at CBA, Rumson-Fair Haven, at Manalapan
Non-Division Wins: At Neptune, Brick, vs. Holy Spirit, vs. Trenton, Toms River East, at West Windsor-Plainsboro South, Lacey, vs. Cedar Creek
Non-Division Losses: At Jackson Memorial, vs. Mainland, at Donovan Catholic
Why They’re Here: Howell came into the week riding high off wins over Red Bank Catholic and Marlboro, but ran into a fired-up Rumson squad in a 30-point home loss before dropping an overtime decision to Manalapan. The win over Marlboro gives the Rebels the edge over the Mustangs for No. 13.

14. Marlboro (11-7, 3-6)

Division/Crossover Wins: At Middletown South, Freehold Twp., at Middletown North
Division/Crossover Losses: Red Bank, Colts Neck, Rumson, at Red Bank Catholic, CBA, at Howell
Non-Division Wins: At Central, vs. Middletown South, vs. Colts Neck, Neptune, at St. John Vianney, at Allentown, at Princeton, at Piscataway
Non-Division Losses: Vs. Manasquan
Why They’re Here: The Mustangs have played a challenging schedule that has netted them some quality wins while also helping them avoid any bad losses. Choosing between Marlboro and Colts Neck for the No. 14 seed is difficult since the teams split the two games that played vs. one another, but Marlboro gets the nod because of its road win over No. 4 Central.

15. Colts Neck (12-6, 5-4)

Division/Crossover Wins: Red Bank Catholic, at Marlboro, Freehold Twp., Middletown North, at Middletown South
Division/Crossover Losses: At CBA, Manalapan, at Rumson, at Red Bank
Non-Division Wins: At Rahway, vs. St. John Vianney, Jackson Liberty, at Point Beach, Old Bridge, vs. Lower Cape May
Non-Division Losses: At Toms River North, vs. Marlboro
Why They’re Here: Colts Neck's argument to be ahead of Marlboro is that when the two teams were at full strength, Colts Neck won at Marlboro. The Cougars also beat RBC by 31, so going by common opponents Colts Neck has the edge over Marlboro. On strongest win, Marlboro has it.

16. St. John Vianney (11-11, 8-3)

Division/Crossover Wins: At Matawan, Raritan, Point Boro, Neptune, Ranney, at Long Branch, Freehold Boro, at Wall
Division/Crossover Losses: At Holmdel, Manasquan, at St. Rose
Non-Division Wins: Middletown North, Pioneer Academy, at Williamstown
Non-Division Losses: New Dorp (N.Y.), vs. Central, vs. Colts Neck, vs. Middletown South, at Rumson, Marlboro, at Middletown South, at Snyder
Why They’re Here: St. John Vianney doesn't have that one big win that catapults a team toward the top 10 and the Lancers also have two losses to 7-9 Middletown South. With that being said, they have racked up some solid wins over the likes of Ranney, Point Boro and Freehold Boro, not to mention a near-victory against No. 2 Manasquan.

17. Freehold Boro (15-5, 7-4)

Division/Crossover Wins: Neptune, at Point Boro, at Ranney, at Long Branch, Raritan, at Wall
Division/Crossover Losses: St. Rose, Manasquan, Holmdel, at St. John Vianney
Non-Division Wins: vs. Jackson Liberty, vs. Academy Charter, at Brick, Southern, Keansburg, Lakewood, Pinelands, at Shore
Non-Division Losses: Freehold Twp.
Why They’re Here: The results have been mixed over the course of the season, but the Colonials are on track to have a good record heading into the postseason and a talented roster. A win over Southern keeps Freehold Boro ahead of the Rams, but a loss to St. John Vianney keeps the Colonials on the road in this projected first round.

18. Southern (14-7, 7-4)

Division/Crossover Wins: At Brick Memorial, at Manchester, Lacey, at Brick, Toms River North, at Pinelands, at Toms River East
Division/Crossover Losses: Central, Barnegat, Toms River South, at Jackson Memorial
Non-Division Wins: At Atlantic Tech, Trenton, Fair Lawn, Long Branch, at Jackson Liberty, vs. Collingswood, at Freehold Twp.
Non-Division Losses: At Red Bank, Lenape, at Freehold Boro
Why They’re Here: Head-to-head losses to Barnegat, Toms River South, Freehold Boro and Jackson Memorial could wind up costing Southern a home game, which is a tough break for a team that has a win over Toms River North and some solid additional wins outside the conference.

19. Point Pleasant Boro (12-8, 4-7)

Division/Crossover Wins: Wall, at Raritan, Long Branch, Neptune
Division/Crossover Losses: At St. Rose, at St. John Vianney, Freehold Boro, Matawan, Manasquan, at Holmdel, at Ranney
Non-Division Wins: Bernards, Academy Charter, Jackson Liberty, Toms River South, Barnegat, South River, Point Beach, at Brick
Non-Division Losses: Lacey
Why They’re Here: Point Boro inches up a few spots with the struggles of Toms River South and Barnegat this week -- two teams that Point Boro beat when both were hot. Games against Holmdel and Ranney to open the week represented a chance for Point Boro to climb, but after losing both, the Panthers look like they will be on the road in round one.

20. Barnegat (13-8, 7-4)

Division/Crossover Wins: At Brick Memorial, at Southern, Toms River South, at Jackson Memorial, Lacey, at Pinelands, Brick
Division/Crossover Losses: At Manchester, Central, Toms River North, Toms River East
Non-Division Wins: Jackson Liberty, Asbury Park, vs. Cape May Tech, at Lakewood, at Ocean, Millville
Non-Division Losses: At Rumson, vs. Bridgeton, at Seneca, at Point Boro
Why They’re Here: When the lineup has been whole and healthy, Barnegat has proved formidable. The Bengals have beaten Southern and Toms River South and also played Toms River North tough in a loss. Wednesday's home loss to Toms River East, however, was a blow to the Bengals' chances at hosting a first-round game.

21. Toms River South (12-8, 5-6)

Division/Crossover Wins: At Pinelands, at Manchester, Brick, Toms River East, at Southern
Division/Crossover Losses: At Lacey, Central, at Barnegat, Brick Memorial, Jackson Memorial, at Toms River North
Non-Division Wins: Lakewood, Toms River North, vs. Freehold Twp., vs. Toms River East, vs. Donovan Catholic, Shore, at Monmouth
Non-Division Losses: At Point Boro, Donovan Catholic
Why They’re Here: Toms River South hasn’t been the most consistent team, although it has been more good than not. The Indians have wins over Toms River North, Donovan Catholic, Southern and Shore, while also dropping games to Lacey, Brick Memorial and Jackson Memorial while barely avoiding an upset vs. Pinelands. With the quality of wins, Toms River South had a shot at a first-round home game heading into the week, but Tuesday's loss at Jackson Memorial followed by a one-sided loss at Toms River North probably ended that discussion.

22. Shore (14-5, 8-2)

Division/Crossover Wins: Keansburg, Asbury Park, at Monmouth, at Point Beach, Keyport, at Ocean, at Lakewood
Division/Crossover Losses: At Henry Hudson, Donovan Catholic
Non-Division Wins: Toms River East, Manchester, Central Jersey College Charter, Asbury Park, Lacey, at New Brunswick
Non-Division Losses: CBA, at Toms River South, Freehold Boro
Why They’re Here: Shore has a pair of closes losses to Toms River South and Henry Hudson and the loss to Hudson came with senior standout Alex George injured and unable to play. The Blue Devils added a competitive loss to the résumé in losing to Donovan Catholic, but that probably doesn't warrant a jump over two teams that beat Shore head-to-head. A win over Freehold Boro to close out the week, however, could set up a jump in the rankings.

23. Toms River East (10-10, 7-4)

Division/Crossover Wins: Brick, Manchester, Lacey, at Pinelands, Jackson Memorial, Brick Memorial, at Barnegat
Division/Crossover Losses: At Toms River North, at Toms River South, Southern, at Central
Non-Division Wins: Jackson Liberty, vs. Wall, New Egypt
Non-Division Losses: At Shore, vs. Toms River South, vs. Manchester, at Howell, at Middletown North, vs. St. Joseph Hammonton
Why They’re Here: The Raiders picked up their first win vs. a team with a winning record when they beat Barnegat on Wednesday, which also clinched them a spot in the tournament. Without much else to speak of and a head-to-head loss to Shore, this is about right for Toms River East and its chances to climb probably hinge more on Shore's result vs. Freehold Boro than anything Toms River East can do.

24. Henry Hudson (16-3, 8-2)

Division/Crossover Wins: Shore, Monmouth, at Keansburg, at Lakewood, at Asbury Park, at Jackson Liberty, Keyport, Ocean
Division/Crossover Losses: Donovan Catholic, Point Beach
Non-Division Wins: At Perth Amboy Magnet, University Charter, at Somerset Tech, vs. South Amboy, at South River, College Achieve Central, Academy for Urban Leadership, Thomas Edison EnergySmart
Non-Division Losses: Pinelands
Why They’re Here: Henry Hudson has been used to playing with nothing to lose this season, but the Admirals played a team with nothing to lose on Saturday while Hudson did have something on the line in the game. Pinelands won just its fourth game of the season by topping the Admirals in Atlantic Highlands, which is the first ugly result on Henry Hudson's résumé. Throw in a lot of wins over other small-schools with modest records and Henry Hudson probably sinks a few spots following the loss.

25. Monmouth (10-8, 6-4)

Division/Crossover Wins: Keansburg, Point Beach, at Keyport, at Ocean, at Asbury Park, Lakewood
Division/Crossover Losses: At Henry Hudson, Shore, Donovan Catholic, at Jackson Liberty
Non-Division Wins: Raritan, at Neptune, Academy for Urban Leadership, at Long Branch
Non-Division Losses: Vs. Allentown, at Red Bank, Toms River South, at Middletown North
Why They’re Here: With a win over Point Beach, Monmouth has a case to avoid the last seed. None of the Falcons’ other wins, however, are against a team with a winning record, but it is still enough to jump Point Beach at the moment.

26. Point Pleasant Beach (10-9, 6-3)

Division/Crossover Wins: At Lakewood, at Keansburg, Ocean, at Henry Hudson, at Keyport, Asbury Park
Division/Crossover Losses: At Monmouth, Shore, at Donovan Catholic
Non-Division Wins: Brick, Pinelands, vs. Asbury Park, Keansburg
Non-Division Losses: Vs. Lacey, at Lacey, Colts Neck, Long Branch, at Red Bank, at Point Boro
Why They’re Here: Point Beach scored a big road win over Henry Hudson to give the Garnet Gulls a shot at the Class A Central title and to position themselves ahead of the Admirals in the seeding. In losing to Donovan Catholic, however, the Garnet Gulls conceded the outright division title to Henry Hudson and while there is an argument for Point Beach to jump Hudson, the committee not likely to drop a division winner any lower than No. 24.

Eliminated on Saturday

Manchester (9-11, 4-7)

Current Projected Pairings

Opening Round

Tuesday, Feb. 6

(26) Point Beach at (7) Toms River North

(25) Monmouth at (8) Red Bank Catholic

(24) Henry Hudson at (9) Rumson-Fair Haven

(23) Toms River East at (10) Donovan Catholic

(22) Shore at (11) Ranney

(21) Toms River South at (12) Manalapan

(20) Barnegat at (13) Howell

(19) Point Boro at (14) Marlboro

(18) Southern at (15) Colts Neck

(17) Freehold Boro at (16) St. John Vianney

Round of 16

Thursday, Feb. 8

(17) Freehold Boro/(16) SJV winner at (1) St. Rose

(18) Southern/(15) Colts Neck winner at (2) Manasquan

(19) Point Boro/(14) Manalapan winner at (3) Red Bank

(20) Barnegat/(13) Howell winner at (4) Central

(21) TR South/(12) Manalapan winner at (5) CBA

(22) Shore/(11) Ranney winner at (6) Holmdel

(23) TR East /(10) Donovan Catholic winner vs. (26) Point Beach/(7) TR North winner

(24) Henry Hudson/(9) Rumson-FH winner vs. (25) Monmouth/(8) RBC winner