Boys Soccer – Breaking Down the SCT Field: 11-20
The Shore Conference Boys Soccer Tournament is scheduled to begin Thursday afternoon, weather permitting, and this year’s field is packed with a whopping 30 teams. While it remains to be seen if more teams means more upsets, it does technically (and obviously) make for more potential champions. There are a few teams in the field that don’t seem to have much of a chance to make it out of the first round, but sources have indicated that all teams will be allowed to field 11 players and start their games tied at zero.
That being the case, every team has some measure of a chance to make a run, and over the next 24 hours, you can read one man’s interpretation of the field and how each of its teams stack up against the rest. The 30 teams will be ranked, in descending order, on their chances to win the whole thing, or at least get to the semifinals in Neptune. Think of it as handicapping by a guy who does not know how to create mathematically functional odds.
We’ll start with the first 10 in the field, followed by the next 10, and then the top 10. Seeding has very little to do with the list; the most important factors are how a team is playing, how well a team is likely to play and, most notably, the ever-important draw. The more manageable the path to the semifinals, the better the odds.
The time for talk is almost over. But for now, let’s talk some more.
Here are teams No. 20 through No. 11.
20. Middletown North
Seed: 13
First-Round Opponent: No. 20 Long Branch
Reason to Believe: Few teams have been able to rise to the occasion like Middletown North has. The Lions beat and tied Manalapan and swept the season series from Freehold Township, which was the primary reason that the Patriots fell out of the Class A North race. Although Middletown North lost to CBA twice, the Lions battled the Colts to a 1-0 score the second time the two teams met, so Middletown North has played the best competition tough. The Lions will have to shake off some recent rust that has caused them to go four straight games without a win, but considering those four games consisted of three one-goal defeats and a draw, a turnaround is not a reach for a team with so many big wins this year. Long Branch has had some finishing issues, so the Lions could very well get a shot to add Wall to the list of teams they have upset.
Outlook: Middletown North is a hard team to figure out. Yes, they have some huge A North wins, but over the last week, the Lions tied Freehold and lost to both Marlboro and Middletown South. It’s possible they are gearing up for the tournament, but the first challenge will be a Long Branch team that no one wanted to draw in the first round. With the Green Wave hoping to flip the switch and Wall awaiting the winner, Middletown North will have to turn things around quickly. On the plus side, the Lions have shown they are capable of just that.
19. Marlboro
Seed: 19
First-Round Opponent: At No. 14 Red Bank
Reason to Believe: The Mustangs got through a tough schedule this week in order to qualify for the tournament, which included a thrilling win over Middletown North to clinch their spot. Although Marlboro did not beat any of the top three teams in Class A North, they have been on the field with some of the toughest teams in the tournament, which means Red Bank will be facing a battle-tested team. The same rules apply to a potential trip to Toms River North, although another meeting with CBA or Freehold Township would evoke memories of a couple of recent blowout losses to both of those teams.
Outlook: In six games against Manalapan, CBA and Freehold Township, Marlboro is 0-6 while being outscored 19-2, including 12-0 in the three most recent meetings. The Mustangs are good enough to put that behind them and knock off an upset-prone Red Bank team and banged up Toms River North team, but if Marlboro has designs of beating one of the A North powers, it has a long way to go.
18. Long Branch
Seed: 20
First-Round Opponent: At No. 13 Middletown North
Reason to Believe: When on its game, Long Branch is one of the five most impressive-looking teams in the Shore Conference. The Green Wave are exceedingly skilled as a midfield unit and striker and 19-goal scorer Guilherme DeNovaes could have some opposing coaches and goalkeepers waking up in a cold sweat. On top of the raw ability of the Green Wave, the draw is a good one. Middletown North has struggled since its second win over Freehold Township and even in its big wins, the Lions have often had to overcome being outshot. Long Branch has had plenty of games in which it can’t take advantage of its chances, but the Wave figure to get them on Thursday. Getting past Wall in round two is a major obstacle considering the Crimson Knights handled Long Branch in the season series, but a third meeting could be a charmed one for a dangerous Long Branch side. If Long Branch can get past Wall, the sky is the limit.
Outlook: Middletown North has built its season on punishing teams that don’t cash in their opportunities, so Long Branch shouldn’t take the Lions lightly, if that’s even possible for a team on the road. The Green Wave probably would have been better off drawing a second-round opponent that is less familiar with what they do, but then again, Wall would probably prefer to see a different team as well. The next couple of weeks will tell if Long Branch has just been unlucky over these last two years or if something else is holding them back in tight games against good teams.
17. St. John Vianney
Seed: 25
First-Round Opponent: At No. 8 Brick Memorial
Reason to Believe: The Lancers have had an up-and-down season but one thing has remained constant: they do not allow goals. In 12 games so far this season, Vianney has allowed only eight goals and all five of its losses are shutouts. While the Lancers will have to play a very dangerous Brick Memorial team that has been shut out just once this year and has scored at least two goals in all but five games, they also face a Mustangs side that has had trouble keeping the ball out of its net. St. John Vianney showed its potential to score when it put up six goals against Rumson on Tuesday, and that game might also have been a statement to the seeding committee that the Lancers were overlooked. With potential games against Point Boro and top-seeded Toms River South down the road, St. John Vianney looks like the best bet of any team seeded in the twenties.
Outlook: Inconsistent scoring has cost St. John Vianney over the course of its schedule, as evidenced by those five shutout losses. If those struggles continue against Brick Memorial, then the Lancers are probably going home because the Mustangs are not likely to be shut out. If, however, the 6-1 win is an indication of the Lancers getting hot, Vianney is a serious threat to pick off two single-digit seeds and give top-seeded Toms River South a battle.
16. Freehold
Seed: 17
First-Round Opponent: At No. 16 Ocean
Reason to Believe: There was little reason to believe that, at 1-6-1, Freehold would so much as sniff the Shore Conference Tournament, but the Colonials have defied the odds by going 6-0-3 to close their regular season and get themselves in the dance. During its rally into the SCT, Freehold defeated Marlboro and Freehold Township and also tied Middletown North, CBA and Manalapan. The Colonials have been flat out good since captain Roberto Albarran moved from striker to sweeper and the goal scoring has not suffered. Freehold looks like a prime candidate for a penalty kick shootout at some point this postseason and a first-round match with Ocean is the first opportunity. Ocean is 0-3 outside of B North this year and split with a Colts Neck team that bears a certain likeness to Freehold. Toms River South would present a challenge to Freehold because of its senior experience, but that hasn’t been too much of an obstacle for Freehold to this point.
Outlook: Ocean is better than your average No. 16 seed because of its scoring ability, and Alberran and the defense will have their hands full stopping Wadnesdon Alexis and Marlhens Nasanes. On the flip side, not only is Freehold battle-tested from all of the A North games, but its returning starters also have experience against Ocean from last season’s B North campaign. There shouldn’t be any surprises in store for Freehold, which will allow the Colonials to continue to do the surprising, as long as they can keep up this level of play.
15. Holmdel
Seed: 15
First-Round Opponent: No. 18 Toms River East
Reason to Believe: Holmdel was the closest thing to a consensus top-five team in the Shore Conference during the preseason and its recent win over CBA likely had plenty of top seeds sweating over the notion of having to play the Hornets early on. As it turns out, the draw might be worse for Holmdel than it is for Hornets opponents. Toms River East offers as much talent as any Class A South team and will be out to exact revenge against Holmdel after the Hornets beat Toms River East in overtime in last season’s round of 16. Holmdel is certainly playing at a level good enough to overcome the first challenge, but with Manalapan – and its rocky home terrain – awaiting the winner of that game, the long term prospects are faint. The reason Holmdel should believe it can win is because the Hornets should always believe they can win. They have a good team that proved itself worthy by beating CBA, which had just defeated Manalapan five days earlier. It’s not a good draw, but Holmdel is one of the few teams that can handle the challenge.
Outlook: Holmdel picked up the most important win of the day with respect to SCT seeding on Monday and for its trouble, it got the toughest draw of any team with a first-round home game. Holmdel will have to go through Toms River East, Manalapan and likely the winner of a Jackson Memorial vs. Matawan round-of-16 game in order to make it back to Neptune for the fourth straight year. The Hornets are good enough to pull it off, but there are better bets out there.
14. Central
Seed: 12
First-Round Opponent: No. 21 Lacey
Reason to Believe: Teams that can score goals are the ones that scare opponents and Central can score goals. The Golden Eagles have two of the top threats in the conference in Blake Czajkowski and Doug Jensen, a defender who can push up and create in Shane Cranstoun, and emerging sophomore Youssef Abdelaziz to provide another option. Unfortunately for Central, it will be missing the best of the bunch, as Czajkowski sits for his second straight game after drawing a red card last Thursday. While that was an unfortunate break for Central, the draw turned out to be a fortunate turn as the Golden Eagles host a slumping Lacey side with a potential trip to Shore to follow with the Czajkowski back in the lineup. Getting past Lacey still won’t be easy, but if Central can just grind out a win, its roster will be back to full strength to potentially take on Shore and Wall, teams that Central can beat on its best day.
Outlook: No team that has to play a first-round game without its best player is safe from a potential upset and Central is as vulnerable as any first-round home team because of that predicament. Despite that, the Golden Eagles are set up for a potential run if they can survive because both Shore and Wall have proven to be beatable at different points this season by teams that are at or below Central’s level. With the goal-scoring Central offers, no team would be comfortable welcoming for the Golden Eagles in for an elimination game.
13. Ocean
Seed: 16
First-Round Opponent: No. 17 Freehold
Reason to Believe: The Spartans are now two years removed from a Shore Conference Tournament championship and followed their championship performance up with a run to the semifinals last year. Ocean, however, graduated two strong classes from those two teams over the last two years and currently relies on a talented junior class on this year’s team. Despite Ocean’s woes outside the division (0-3), the Spartans have hung with the top two teams in the division – Wall and Red Bank – going 2-1-1 against the duo. Even in a 3-0 loss to Wall on Friday, Ocean edged out the Crimson Knights in shots and were hampered by an injury to goalkeeper Yanni Kavarakas, who is expected to play this week. A red-hot Freehold team stands in the way, but Ocean has the recent tournament performance to survive. In fact, Ocean has taken out Toms River South in each of the last two seasons and the top-seeded Indians would host Ocean should the Spartans beat the Colonials in round one.
Outlook: The sustained health of Kavarakas will be worth following for Ocean and even with a healthy goalkeeper, the Freehold game to open the tournament is a scary one. With the scoring ability that Ocean offers, the Spartans will be dangerous and if they can clear that round-one hurdle, a surprise run to a third straight semifinal round would be a distinct possibility.
12. Matawan
Seed: 10
First-Round Opponent: No. 23 Manasquan
Reason to Believe: The Huskies have answered every challenge so far this year, including beating every team in Class A Central, defeating a quality Long Branch team outside the division, and, of course, winning the first boys soccer division championship in school history. Matawan split the regular-season series with Manasquan, including an overtime loss in the first meeting between the teams. Manasquan will have a lot more motivation than it did on Friday, when Matawan beat the Warriors 2-0 to clinch the division title, so expect something closer to the first meeting. The Huskies are unproven in this kind of win-or-go-home setting, but that doesn’t mean they can’t handle this draw. Jackson Memorial will surrender possession to Matawan in a potential round-of-16 game and if the Huskies can do something with the ball (easier said than done against Jackson) that is a winnable game. Holmdel taking out Manalapan would really open up the bracket to Matawan, which is one of the best possible stories in the field after making history this year.
Outlook: Matawan probably is not quite up to the task of beating Manalapan with a trip to Neptune on the line, but the Huskies have already made believers out of a lot of doubters this year. Jackson Memorial has been on fire recently, but if Matawan can do its part in the first two games, including a road win against the Jaguars, it’s possible the Huskies could host Holmdel with a chance to go to the semifinals. After a regular-season split and a 3-1 win in the most recent meeting, Matawan should feel pretty good about that possible scenario.
11. Brick Memorial
Seed: 8
First-Round Opponent: No. 25 St. John Vianney
Reason to Believe: The Mustangs can score with any team in the Shore Conference and their potential opponents in the first two rounds don’t have the firepower to match Brick Memorial in a back-and-forth, high-scoring game. Where those teams – which include St. John Vianney, Point Boro and St. Rose – can make up for the difference in goal scoring is an edge in goal prevention, so in order for Brick Memorial to avoid getting picked off, it will have to be on point in the back. For the most part, Brick Memorial has been able to hold it together on the defensive end, with the exception of games against Toms River South and Toms River North. Excluding those four games, Brick Memorial has only allowed two goals once, which came in a 5-3 win over Colts Neck on opening day. Toms River South awaits Brick Memorial in a potential quarterfinal, but the Mustangs figure to have a better idea of how to handle the Indians in a third meeting.
Outlook: St. John Vianney is a dangerous first-round opponent because the Lancers have been hit-or-miss when it comes to scoring and consistently good defensively. Ten of Vianney’s 17 goals have come in two games, which were a 4-0 win over Holmdel and a 6-1 win over Rumson. If the Mustangs can overcome the Lancer defense, they should be able to get by the first round and attempt to end Point Boro’s winning streak, which would be 14 games should the Panthers beat St. Rose. There should be a couple battles on the way, but the Mustangs are set up well to get another crack at Toms River South in the quarterfinals, and that’s if the top-seeded Indians can survive Ocean or Freehold.
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