I can’t seem to shake these four-loss weeks, as this is the part of the year where it becomes harder to decipher which teams that are out of the playoff running are still going hard and which ones have mailed in their seasons.

Borden Stadium should be rocking on Friday night as No. 4 Rumson-Fair Haven welcomes No. 5 Manasquan for a big Class A Central game. (Photo by Bill Normile)
Borden Stadium should be rocking on Friday night as No. 4 Rumson-Fair Haven welcomes No. 5 Manasquan for a big Class A Central game. (Photo by Bill Normile)
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This week has a great slate of games, many with big state playoff seeding implications. Nothing beats the desperation of cut-off weekend, although it’s certainly not what it used to be considering there are now five Groups and teams with sub-.500 records can get into the playoffs. There are 43 teams in the Shore Conference, and it appears that 21 of them already have locked up playoff berths, which is essentially half of the teams in the area.

Other than some of the bigger-school brackets like Central and South Jersey Group V, it’s not that big of a deal to qualify for the playoffs at this point. To me, winning a postseason game is what stamps a season as a success under this new format. Still, this weekend always brings its share of drama, and this year should be no different.

Last week: 17-4

Season: 137-33

Friday’s Games

Keansburg (1-7, 0-4) at Asbury Park (5-2, 2-2), 6 p.m.

This is Keansburg’s last regular-season game under first-year coach Chris Damian, while the Blue Bishops are playoff-bound. Keansburg’s offense has shown flashes of explosiveness, but Asbury Park’s defense has been a shutdown unit all season. In their two losses, they gave up only 10 points in each game. Asbury Park is looking like the No. 6 seed in Central Jersey Group I, which could mean a first-round rematch with Point Beach. The Garnet Gulls beat the Blue Bishops 10-7 on a late field goal in their regular-season match-up, so they will be eager for revenge. The pick: Asbury Park.

No. 2 Manalapan (7-0, 4-0) at Howell (3-4, 2-2), 6:30 p.m.

The Braves can clinch at least a tie for their fourth straight Class A North title, a dynasty that hasn’t been seen since Middletown South won seven straight division crowns from 1999-2005. The only question left in their season is the one that has been hanging out there from the preseason – can they finish the job in Central Jersey Group V against the powers from the Greater Middlesex Conference and elsewhere? They have dominated the Shore Conference, and face a Howell team that just gave up 51 points last week. With a win, Manalapan would just have to beat a one-win Marlboro team on Thanksgiving to officially wrap up its fourth straight division crown. The Braves are looking like they will be the No. 2 seed in CJ Group V behind Old Bridge, which guarantees them two home games before it’s most likely back to Rutgers Stadium for a third straight crack at the program’s first state sectional title. The pick: Manalapan.

 

Middletown North (2-5, 2-2) at Freehold Township (1-6, 1-4), 6:30 p.m.

Middletown North looks to be a beneficiary of the new world of sub-.500 teams qualifying for the playoffs, as the Lions can clinch a spot in Central Jersey Group IV with a win in this game to move to 3-5. They have come alive in the past three weeks after a tough opening schedule, with two wins in their last three games. Freshman quarterback Donald Glenn and sophomore running back Chad Freshnock have continued to improve, and Freshnock appears on his way to a 1,000-yard rushing season. Those two give the Lions a bright future under coach Steve Bush and have made the Lions an exciting team to watch. Freehold Township has not scored more than 20 points in a game all season, so Middletown North will try to see if the Patriots can keep up with them as they seek their first playoff berth since 2009. The crazy part is that Middletown North still could possibly get into the postseason at 2-6 if they lose, but they appear to be gaining momentum at the right time. The pick: Middletown North.

No. 6 Colts Neck (6-1, 3-1) at No. 8 Middletown South (4-3, 3-1), 7 p.m.

This game has important Central Jersey Group IV implications, as the winner has a good shot at the No. 2 seed and a pair of home games in the postseason. Colts Neck has dominated everyone except for No. 2 Manalapan, while Middletown South has played a tough schedule and come up short in three of its four big tests. The Eagles may have found something in the run game last week with Jeremy Concepcion putting up 139 yards rushing and a touchdown on No. 1 Red Bank Catholic. Colts Neck runs the ball downhill with Anthony Gargiulo to set up everything else, so it will be up to the Eagles to try to solve that attack and then pressure quarterback Christian Sanchez on third down. Meanwhile, Middletown South’s passing game will have to pick it up after struggling in its last two big games. There is also the chance that just like last year, this could only be Round One, as these two teams could potentially meet again in the playoffs by the semifinal round depending on how the seeds shake out. The pick: Colts Neck.

 

No. 5 Manasquan (6-1, 4-1) at No. 4 Rumson-FH (7-0, 4-0), 7 p.m.

Last season, this was an emotional game at Manasquan in the wake of Hurricane Sandy. This season, it’s a huge game at Rumson where the winner looks to secure the No. 1 seed in its respective state playoff bracket, Manasquan in South Jersey Group III and Rumson in Central Jersey Group II. There is a little more urgency for Rumson because it looks like Manasquan may still be the top seed in South Jersey Group III regardless. Rumson also needs this win to set up a Thanksgiving showdown with No. 1 Red Bank Catholic with the Class A Central title on the line. For Manasquan, the mission is to slow down Rumson-Fair Haven junior tailback Charlie Volker and force the Bulldogs to put the ball in the air 15-plus times. Volker has rattled off three straight games of 240 yards or more rushing. Offensively, the Warriors will have to try to solve a Rumson defense that has not given up more than one touchdown in any game this season. The Bulldogs’ rugged front seven will look to get after Manasquan quarterback Tucker Caccavale and force him to make throws on the run and with defenders in his face. Senior tailback Joe Murphy is rested after a bye week and should be good to go, with running back James McAlary as another threat for Manasquan. Like last year, this could be a low-scoring slugfest that comes down to the fourth quarter. I’ll give the slightest edge to the home team. The pick: Rumson-FH.

 

No. 10 Toms River South (5-2, 4-2) at Toms River North (0-7, 0-5), 7 p.m.

This is a game of role reversal, as Toms River South has not beaten its crosstown rival in 11 years, but enters as the heavy favorite on its way to at least the No. 3 seed in South Jersey Group IV and possibly No. 2. Meanwhile, the Mariners are struggling through potentially the worst season in program history. Toms River South’s myriad offensive weapons and a much-improved defense should help the Indians drive home the point that they are now the team that rules Toms River. The pick: Toms River South.

 

No. 7 Jackson Memorial (5-2, 5-1) at No. 9 Brick (6-2, 5-1), 7 p.m.

This game is for the Class A South title, with Jackson seeking its first division crown since 2005 and Brick looking to take home its first title since 2008. Of course, the primary intrigue in this game is whether Brick can close the deal without starting quarterback Carmen Sclafani, who will miss a second straight week with a shoulder injury. Junior Joe Phillips, who started at quarterback as a sophomore, proved to be a capable replacement with a clutch touchdown pass with under a minute to go that helped beat Lacey and will be called upon to step up again. Meanwhile, the Jaguars enter playing their best football of the season, stifling Southern in a 28-6 win last week as their ground attack behind Khani Glover and Ken Bradley continued to be productive. The pick: Jackson Memorial.

 

Neptune (3-4, 2-3) at Wall (3-4, 2-3), 7 p.m.

Neptune is coming off its bye week, while Wall nearly stunned undefeated Ocean in a 7-6 heartbreaker last week. Neptune can get at least the No. 6 seed in Central Jersey Group IV with a win, but still could get in with a loss in a bracket that has several sub-.500 teams vying for spots at the bottom. Wall would secure the No. 6 spot in South Jersey Group III with a win, but a loss puts them in jeopardy if Manchester upsets Central. Both of these teams have had up-and-down seasons offensively, so the main question mark is which offense will make enough plays to get a win here. Honestly, I have no idea. Both teams played division champion Ocean very tough, so they have that in common. We’ll see which team wins the field position battle and comes up with big turnovers to put the offense in a good spot. The pick: Neptune.

 

Matawan (4-3) at New Brunswick (0-8), 7 p.m.

Matawan has to take care of business here and then start scoreboard-watching, as it looks to come down to a residual point battle between the Huskies and Allentown, with Raritan also potentially in that mix, for the No. 8 seed in Central Jersey Group III. Given the level the Huskies’ defense has been playing at, this is most likely a shutout coming up. If Matawan does get in, that will be a scary first-round game for a high seed because of the Huskies' defense and special teams. The pick: Matawan.

Barnegat (6-1) at Red Bank (1-6), 7 p.m.

The Bengals are coming off an upset loss at the hands of Lakewood in which the running game struggled, but this is a chance to get back on track and lock down the No. 2 seed and a pair of home games in South Jersey Group III. Barnegat has never made a state final, so this would set them up to be in a good spot and lay the groundwork for a potential championship game against Manasquan if the seeds hold true. The pick: Barnegat.

 

Keyport (5-3, 2-2) at Shore (6-1, 3-0), 7 p.m.

The best Keyport can do at this point is monkey-wrench Shore’s bid to be the No. 1 seed in Central Jersey Group I because it looks like the Red Raiders will not be in the field in Central Jersey Group II. This is their ninth game, so it does not count towards the power points. Shore has been crushing everyone in its path in winning six straight and doesn’t show any signs of slowing down with a balanced running attack and quarterback Matt Muh in addition to a stifling defense. The Blue Devils also need this win to set up a Thanksgiving showdown against defending Class B Central champion Point Beach for the division title. The pick: Shore.

 

Msgr. Donovan (3-4, 3-2) at Jackson Liberty (3-4, 3-3), 7 p.m.

This is one of those toss-up Class B South games that is always tough to pick. Monsignor Donovan is already in the field in Non-Public Group III, while Jackson Liberty still has a shot at a playoff berth in Central Jersey Group IV if it wins this game and gets some help. The Lions’ offense seems to have found its groove after moving around personnel early in the season, while Monsignor Donovan’s run defense has had issues stopping teams in recent weeks. The pick: Jackson Liberty.

 

Lakewood (5-2, 4-2) at Point Boro (0-8, 0-6), 7 p.m.

Lakewood is flying high after a 21-14 takedown of previously unbeaten Barnegat, so the key is not to get caught looking ahead in this game. The small subplot is that Piners offensive coordinator Calvin Thompson returns to Al Saner Field, where he led Point Boro to a state title and multiple division titles in his tenure in the mid-2000s. Lakewood’s defense should help prevent any letdowns as the Piners look to grab a top-five seed in Central Jersey Group II and make the playoffs in consecutive seasons for the first time in program history. The pick: Lakewood.

 

Central (5-2, 5-1) at Manchester (2-5, 2-3), 7 p.m.

Both teams have a lot to play for in this game. Central can clinch a tie for the Class B South title, its first division championship since 1994, with a win, while also going a long way toward securing the first home playoff game in program history with a top-four seed in South Jersey Group III. Manchester, meanwhile, still has an outside shot at the last seed in South Jersey Group III with a win, so both teams should be going all out. Central’s Javon Hardy is coming off a 277-yard rushing performance and a school-record six touchdowns, and Manchester can’ t load up everything to stop him because of quarterback Marquis Drumright, wideout Isaiah Akers and the Golden Eagles’ passing game. Manchester has an explosive running back of its own in Amani Richardson, as well as playmakers in the passing game led by Kashaun Barnes and Devin Tomei. This could turn into a shootout. The pick: Central.

 

Saturday’s Games

No. 1 Red Bank Catholic (7-0, 4-0) at Monmouth (2-5, 1-4), 12:30 p.m.

RBC appears to be locked into the No. 4 seed in Non-Public Group III and looks to take care of business against the Falcons and then gear up for a run in a loaded state bracket. The Caseys look to have Immaculata at home in the first round and then it’s another trip up to Montvale to face the No. 1 team in the state, a juggernaut St. Joseph’s squad, in the semifinals. The pick: Red Bank Catholic.

 

Edison (4-3) at Marlboro (1-6), 1 p.m.

Edison came out of the gate as the early story of the year in the Greater Middlesex Conference before cooling off later in the season. Marlboro enters with some confidence after beating Perth Amboy for its first win last week. However, given the fact that Edison beat three-time defending state champions Sayreville already this season, this is a tall order for the Mustangs. The pick: Edison.

 

Raritan (2-5, 1-3) at St. John Vianney (3-4, 2-3), 1 p.m.

This is a great rivalry game that Raritan has to win to have even a prayer at the last spot in Central Jersey Group III. The Lancers beat the Rockets in overtime last season and look to rip off their third straight win after a 1-4 start. Quarterback Billy DeMato and wideout Julanee Prince will look to stay hot for St. John Vianney, while tailback Jared Collins and quarterback Riley Sullivan look to make plays for the Rockets, who have had two weeks to prepare because of the bye. St. John Vianney is already qualified in Non-Public Group III, so its playoff hopes are secure. The pick: Raritan.

 

Brick Memorial (5-3, 3-3) at Lacey (5-3, 3-3), 1 p.m.

This is a strange game because it is essentially meaningless other than for pride and final record. It’s the ninth game for both teams, so it doesn’t count at all toward their power-point totals. Lacey has already secured a spot in the field in South Jersey Group IV, while Brick Memorial will be scoreboard watching for other teams to lose and for residual points to grab a last-second spot in Central Jersey Group V. Lacey has lost three straight, while the Mustangs had their four-game winning streak halted in a loss to Toms River South last week. Lacey has struggled against opposing running games, and that’s what Brick Memorial does best, but the combination of Lions quarterback Tom Kelly and wideout Christian Tutela has been explosive and will be a handful for Brick Memorial. This is essentially a pride game, so we’ll see who brings the most effort. The pick: Brick Memorial.

 

Southern (3-4, 2-4) at Toms River East (2-5, 1-4), 1 p.m.

The Rams have to win this game to give themselves a chance to possibly grab a low seed in South Jersey Group V, while the Raiders are just trying to finish strong at this point. Southern has really struggled offensively in the past few games, while Toms River East has been all over the place, scoring 40-plus points three times this season and being shut out three times. The Raiders have a large senior class that will want to finish on a high note, so I am giving the slight edge to the home team here. The pick: Toms River East.

 

No. 3 Ocean (7-0, 5-0) at Freehold (1-6, 1-4), 1 p.m.

Ocean can clinch the outright Class B North title with a win over the Colonials and looks to be a top-two seed in Central Jersey Group III to guarantee them two home games. Freehold does enter with some confidence after beating Red Bank for its first win last week, but no team in the division has come close to solving Ocean’s shutdown defense all season. The pick: Ocean.

Spotswood (7-1) at Mater Dei Prep (4-4), 1 p.m.

This is Mater Dei Prep’s highest win total since going 4-6 in 2006, so this season already has been a big leap forward. Spotswood boasts a win over a Point Beach team that beat the Seraphs 40-14, so the Chargers are a heavy favorite here thanks to a defense that has only allowed three teams to crack double digits this year. The pick: Spotswood.

 

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