Boys Basketball – Shore Conference Tournament Quarterfinals Preview and Predictions
Now that the Shore Conference Tournament has moved into the quarterfinals, it is officially anybody’s game. While the first round did not provide all that much drama, the unique aspect of this tournament was that there were between 12 and 16 teams that were all relatively close in ability to one another, and that started to reveal itself in the last round, when three double-digit seeds won on the road.
Two of those double-digit seeds will play one another and the other already played its Sunday opponent to an overtime loss on the road earlier in the year. The No. 1 team plays an opponent that was a top-three team in the preseason, while an upstart Wall team plays a team that was in a very similar position two years ago.
There have been Shore Conference Tournaments in past years in which nearly every game was considered a foregone conclusion from the quarterfinals to the championship, and in most years, there is at least one team that is a safe bet to pencil into the semifinals. That’s not really the case this year, which means from 11 a.m. until the final whistle around 6 p.m., the edges of the seats inside Collins Arena should get a workout.
No. 10 Neptune vs. No. 15 Point Beach, 11 a.m.
A 10-vs.-15 matchup is usually a surprise on quarterfinal Sunday, but this one features two names we are all accustomed to seeing at this stage of the tournament. Neptune has been on its game for a while now, having won 11 of its last 13 after a 3-7 start to the season. The Scarlet Fliers rolled through two Class A North teams – Howell and Manalapan – on the way to Brookdale, although Manalapan nearly wiped out a 20-point Neptune lead before the Fliers won, 60-52. Neptune had trouble defending Kyle Mullen (26 points) in the post, but the Fliers seemed to adjust better in the second half once most of the front court was already in foul trouble.
Point Beach doesn’t have a true post player, but the Garnet Gulls have size in 6-foot-7 Jesse Hill, who is on a tear over the last two weeks. The senior scored his 1,000th point in a 27-point effort against No. 2 Lakewood on Thursday and has been at the center of the Point Beach resurgence. If there is one piece equally integral in the five-game winning streak Point Beach has strung together, it is junior Jimmy Panzini. Since Panzini’s return from an ankle injury, the Garnet Gulls have taken down Toms River North, Matawan and Lakewood.
Neptune has been a load on the glass for opponents this season and they are likely to have a similar advantage over Point Beach, despite Hill’s prowess on the boards. If the game indeed plays out with Neptune dominating the glass, Point Beach will then have to win by forcing turnovers and executing on the offensive end, which the Garnet Gulls have done so well over the last two weeks. This is a rare game where both teams match up well with one another, which should be reflected in a close score. I have been picking against Point Beach and in favor of Neptune during the tournament, and since both teams have enjoyed the outcomes, let’s stick to that policy.
The Pick: Neptune, 59-55
No. 3 Freehold Township vs. No. 11 Rumson-Fair Haven, 12:45 p.m.
Of the four quarterfinals match-ups, this game is the only rematch from earlier this season. Freehold Township beat Rumson, 63-55, in overtime on Jan. 3 and is one of the few teams to figure out a way to slow down Bulldogs guard Brendan Barry, who had 10 points in the first game. Over the last week or so, Rumson has started to have some success going away from Barry when the opposing defense runs extra attention his way, which should be a concern to the rest of the field. Barry scored 12 points in each of Rumson’s two SCT wins, the first of which was a 37-point win over St. Rose and the second a wire-to-wire road win over Red Bank. The return to form of Morgan Maguire has been a big factor, while Alex Geiger and Thomas Famulary continue to provide consistent scoring.
Freehold Township has not won convincingly in its most recent games against tournament-caliber teams, but the Patriots showed their big-game chops in winning a thriller against Toms River South on Thursday night. Strangely enough, Freehold Township actually executed its logistical gameplan fairly well and still almost lost. The Patriots held Tymere Berry to a shade under his season average of 24.9 points per game (23) and did not allow either Khaleel Greene, Tyler Fall, or any other Indians starter to reach double-figure scoring. They also got 42 combined points from their top three scorers, which would have figured to signify a more comfortable win. Toms River South, though, got 12 unexpected points from sophomore Matt Shiffer off the bench while both Jason and Kyle Czajkowski had off shooting nights for Freehold Township.
To beat Rumson a second time, Freehold Township will again have to beat a team that can at least rival the Patriots athletically while also accounting for the fact that the Bulldogs have figured out how to work around teams selling out to stop Barry. Freehold Township was the first team to successfully do it and now Rumson has what it thinks is a solution. Both these teams are likely to throw out several different looks, but Rumson has the rare bench that has been getting deeper as the season goes.
The Pick: Rumson, 65-60
No. 1 CBA vs. No. 8 Manasquan, 2:30 p.m.
CBA has been the No. 1 team in the Shore Conference for nearly the entire year, but some people probably forget that Manasquan was a consensus top-five team to begin the season – No. 3 in the Shore Sports Network preseason rankings. The Warriors fell out of that range because they could not beat Shore in two tries and went 2-4 against teams in the top 16 in the SCT field during the regular season. Manasquan played one of its more complete games of the season in a 56-49 win over a balanced Colts Neck team on Thursday, and it’s also worth noting the two wins over Rumson during the regular season are looking better and better with each impressive Bulldogs performance.
The Warriors have been one of the Shore’s most consistently strong defensive teams over the last two seasons and with the size, length and athleticism they bring to the table, they are going to be a difficult match-up for CBA when the Colts have the ball. Ryan Jensen, Kyle Bradshaw and Aidan McMenaman all have above average size and mobility for their spots on the floor, while Jack Sheehan and Luke O’Shaughnessy are good perimeter defenders who will look to stay with CBA’s guards without requiring help off the ball. The ability of the Manasquan guards to limit the penetration of CBA’s perimeter players is a big first step in the Warriors knocking off the tournament’s top seed.
The Colts have been in cruise control for most of the second half of the season and have not looked like a no-doubt No. 1 seed in any one game since a 35-point opening-night win over Freehold Township. Instead, CBA has just been a consistent winner that wears teams down with a potent offense that commands a lot of work from the opposing defense. Sunday, the Colts will face a Manasquan defense that will likely relish the challenge of slowing down players like Pat Andree, Jack Laffey and Jack McGuire. Andree is going to score because there just isn’t a defender in the conference who can completely stop a player with his combination of size and skill, but if Manasquan can get out on CBA’s shooters and keep the Colts to one shot per possession, CBA will have its hands full.
The defensive personnel is in place for Manasquan to win Sunday and potentially this whole tournament, but the Warriors are not an especially good outside shooting team. They can get hot like anybody else, but Manasquan is facing a team that will get hot at some point during the game and the Warriors are going to have to match CBA with some big shots of their own. If Manasquan can have an above average shooting game, they just might be playing on Wednesday night. The question is, “Will CBA answer with a better shooting game?”
The Pick: CBA, 50-46
No. 4 Toms River North vs. No. 5 Wall, 4:15 p.m.
The Crimson Knights continued their dream season with a dramatic home win over Southern to make it to Brookdale for the quarterfinals. The Knights will play a Toms River North team that might be viewed similarly if not for a trip to the SCT semifinals two years ago. The Mariners took a while to get above .500 last year, but something started clicking for Toms River North during the middle of last season and with nearly everyone back from that team, the Mariners have not looked back. They have a combination of shooting, size, athleticism and depth that few teams remaining in the field can boast. If Mike Nyisztor is not winning a game with his shooting, Evan Martin is slashing and jumping the passing lanes. If the defense is keying on the wings, point guard Darrion Carrington can facilitate, and on an off shooting night, Jordan Craig can clean up inside. When all facets of Toms River North’s game are in sync, the Mariners are a scary unit.
Wall will try to counter Toms River North’s balance with a well-rounded attack of its own. The Crimson Knights are also guard-oriented, even more so on the defensive end than Toms River North. On offense, the matchup between red-hot Wall guard Brendan Barcas and Martin will be the marquee showdown, although Toms River North could very well defend Wall with a zone. The Crimson Knights showed they could handle a zone look in the win over Southern, with Barcas firing passes through the defense and Trent Mitchell getting to the basket.
As usual, the key to the game is which team executes and knocks down shots. Nyisztor and Wall guard Ryan Janeczek are both coming off quiet offensive games and if either catches fire, that could tip the scale in favor of his team, particularly Nyisztor. When he has shot the ball well, Toms River North has been very hard to beat and over the course of this season, he has proven to be a big-game shooter in just his sophomore year. Another key for Toms River North will be an active and healthy Pat Marinaccio, who is getting closer to full strength after dealing with an ankle sprain. If Marinaccio is flying around the court and Nyisztor gets hot, the Mariners will be playing Wednesday in the SCT semifinals for the second time in three years.
The Pick: Toms River North, 54-47
Record Last Round: 5-3
SCT Picks Record: 12-5
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