Boys Basketball – SCT Opening Round Picks

Snow knocked out almost all of the Shore Conference Tournament opening round on Tuesday, pushing the action to Wednesday evening. With the round of 16 holding firm on Thursday, the seven teams with first-round byes – Christian Brothers Academy, Lakewood, Freehold Township, Toms River North, Wall, Red Bank and Manalapan – will have a distinct advantage over their opponents thanks to the extra rest and, more importantly, extra time to prepare.

How that affects Wednesday’s games remains to be seen, but with or without the specter of short rest and minimal preparation, the first round should offer some close games and probably even a surprise or two. At the time of this post, one game is on for Thursday night and perhaps St. Rose can set the tone for a wild tournament by knocking off Rumson-Fair Haven.

Will that happen? Will any other 20-something seeds win? I don’t know, but for the next 2,000 words or so, I’m going to pretend like I do.

Tuesday, Feb. 17

(22) St. Rose at (11) Rumson-Fair Haven, 6:30 p.m.

As much as any team in the Shore Conference Tournament field, Rumson is a team that sniffs out a mismatch and pounds away at it. The Bulldogs’ eight-point win over Sayreville was their first single-digit win of the season, which means Rumson has won 16 games by double-digit points. On top of that, the Bulldogs have not lost a game by more than more than eight points, and that was an overtime loss at Freehold Township.

St. Rose comes into the game playing some of its best basketball of the season and has some shooters like Nolan Slattery, Matt Frost and Brendan Hueth to potentially keep up with Rumson’s, as long as the Purple Roses can protect the ball and control the pace. In the end, though, the Bulldogs have Brendan Barry and other teams don’t. In this case, that is going to be an awful lot for St. Rose to handle, especially if some combination of Thomas Famulary, Alex Geiger, Jack Luby and Mickey Schluter are hitting open shots.

The Pick: Rumson, 61-50

Wednesday, Feb. 18

(23) Howell at (10) Neptune, 6 p.m.

One of Howell’s biggest SCT wins in program history came at the Flier Dome back in 2011, so this Rebels group is looking for history to repeat. Howell has a balanced lineup that mixes size and scoring, particularly 6-foot-3 swingman Aaron Trimble and 6-5 forward Will Kocsis. While Neptune as enough size and length to contend with Howell’s size, the Scarlet Fliers won’t have a distinct advantage in that regard. If Howell can get some perimeter scoring from Matt Morgan and Gino Palummo, Neptune will have its hands full.

Getting some of that perimeter scoring against Neptune will be a challenge with the way the Scarlet Fliers have defended during the second half of the regular season. Sean McMillan has provided a serious boost to the defense on the perimeter, while Micah Kerr and Marcque Ellington are both disruptive forces around the rim. This game is not a typical 10 vs. 23 game because Howell has a lot of legitimate scoring, while Neptune has shown rather emphatically it can have an off night. Howell is a very live underdog for those reasons, but Neptune has legitimately found itself over the last month. If Neptune is on, the Fliers should avoid a repeat of four years ago.

The Pick: Neptune, 56-49

(18) Matawan at (15) Point Beach, 6 p.m.

The most intriguing first-round match-up features the defending Shore Conference Tournament champion vs. the team it beat in the SCT semifinals. Neither Point Beach nor Matawan is playing at the level it did during last year and that can be attributed to different factors for each team. For Point Beach, so much of their success last year revolved around Matt Farrell, even though the Garnet Gulls had another Division I basketball player in the front court and another All-Shore player in the back-court. This year’s team is probably more balanced and the return of Jimmy Panzini from an ankle injury has stabilized the lineup after Jesse Hill and Mike Rice had to carry the bulk of the scoring load in his absence.

Matawan, meanwhile, returns its two key cogs from last year, but bringing the supporting cast along has taken some time. Lately, however, Matawan has started to figure things out, sparked by the resurgence of senior point guard Joe Piscopo, an All-Shore second-teamer from a year ago. Jason Dunne has had another big year for the Huskies and will likely have to contend with Panzini on the offensive end. For Matawan to win, the Huskies will have to get another strong shooting night from Piscopo and a third scorer to pitch in a significant night, which has been senior Nick Smith recently.

The key to the game is likely going to be Jesse Hill’s shooting. He does not necessarily need to hit a bunch of perimeter shots, but he has to hit a good percentage of the ones he takes. If he does, it will be hard for Matawan to pack the paint against slashers like Panzini and Mike Frauenheim and Point Beach can probably outscore Matawan. The higher the score is, the more it favors Point Beach. If Matawan can grind the game down and get some key contributions from Smith, Samson Ore-Onitolo, Mergim Gjyriqi and Matt Esposito, the Huskies have the edge. In the end, Point Beach is the defending champ and playing well, but Dunne and Piscopo has some unfinished business.

The Pick: Matawan, 49-46

(17) Manchester at (16) Red Bank Catholic, 6 p.m.

In most years, the 16 vs. 17 game is for the right to lose to the No. 1 seed, but both Manchester and Red Bank Catholic should be motivated by a legitimate shot to beat No. 1 CBA. Manchester has not been able to figure out the top teams on its schedule this season (Lakewood, Toms River North, Manasquan) while Red Bank Catholic has seemingly played its best basketball against some its toughest competition (Red Bank, Freehold Township, Ramapo). Manchester has a very good mix of frontcourt and backcourt talent, including two legitimate perimeter offensive threats in Jordan Torney and Shavar Reynolds.

Red Bank Catholic, meanwhile, has struggled to score during its four-game losing streak, but playing Manchester could be an antidote if they can handle the Hawks’ pressure. Red Bank Catholic’s troubles seem to have come against teams that can hound the Caseys shooters in the half court, but against a Red Bank team that likes to press, RBC has actually fared well. For Manchester to win on the road, the Hawks will have to defend in the half court and hope that RBC stays in its shooting funk. With more than a week to prepare and shake off the stink of this four-game slide, expect to see a different Caseys team.

The Pick: Red Bank Catholic, 54-50

(25) Asbury Park at (8) Manasquan, 6:30 p.m.

Asbury Park has made progress within the confines of 2015, not to mention major strides since last year. Sophomore Josmair Taylor has emerged over the last couple of weeks, which helped the Blue Bishops qualify for the tournament. With some youth on the roster, Wednesday will be an important game to learn what a tournament setting against a quality opponent is like.

Ultimately, this game should considerably favor Manasquan. The Warriors are a stellar defensive team that can lock in on one player if need be while still accounting for the paint and the three-point line. Manasquan has had some hiccups this season, but has not allowed itself to be surprised by any lesser opponents. Don’t expect Wednesday to be the first time it happens this season.

The Pick: Manasquan, 67-42

(24) Pinelands at (9) Colts Neck, 6:30 p.m.

Pinelands is playing in its first Shore Conference Tournament ever and will enter with the perception as a heavy underdog. While it’s fair to offer that level of respect to a tough Colts Neck team, it would be foolish to completely overlook the Wildcats. Pinelands has a couple of nice wins over Manchester at home and Donovan Catholic on the road, but the games to pay attention to are the two against Lakewood. Pinelands took leads into the fourth quarter both times and lost both by a three-point margin in each. When at its best, the Wildcats feature one of the underrated players in the Shore Conference in David Lunn, as well as capable perimeter scorers Luke Stambaugh and Zach Wiatrowski and front-court duo Milanj Coursey and Mike Suarez.

If Pinelands has a reason for hope beyond its own strengths, it’s that Colts Neck will be missing standout junior guard Lloyd Daniels. The Cougars have played well without Daniels, defeating Red Bank at home and losing by one to Wall in triple overtime. The return of 6-foot-7 center Mike Lamb has been significant for Colts Neck and the Cougars will have an edge on the interior in most games. Colts Neck can play at any pace, but is at its best in the half court, which goes against Pinelands’ wide-open, full-court style. The contrast in styles will be something to watch from the opening tip, especially if Pinelands can get off to a fast start and has a lead to protect.

Don’t be surprised if that happens, and if it does happen, Colts Neck is relying a lot on Chris O’Reilly to carry the scoring load in Daniels’ absence. If the Cougars can’t get a handle on the tempo and Pinelands can at least make scoring difficult for O’Reilly, the Wildcats will have a real shot. I don’t have the bravado to call the upset, but Colts Neck could be in for a fight.

The Pick: Colts Neck, 66-60

(21) Donovan Catholic at (12) Southern, 6:30 p.m.

On paper, Southern should have a distinct advantage in this game based on the fact that Donovan Catholic has not clicked lately and the Rams are one of only two Shore teams – along with Lakewood – that has not lost on their home floor. Southern has dominated opponents in its gym and is facing a team that lost to Pinelands at home and to Manchester by double-digits at on the road recently.

The Griffins do, however, have some potential match-up issues to throw at Southern, particularly when it comes to shooting. Donovan Catholic has the ability to get hot shooting the ball, which is usually all it takes to give a home favorite a run for its money. James Fata, Riley Collins and Mike Boice can all step out and hit the three, and Boice, in particular, could be key in that regard as a stretch four who can expand Southern’s defense.

If the Rams are on, they should be too much for Donovan to handle. Not only does Southern boast two 1,000-point scorers in Peyton Wejnert and Jake Logue, but 6-foot-6 senior Eric Ray has become a well-rounded threat on both ends and junior point guard Ethan DuBois is one of the Shore’s top passers, which plays well in an offense that has developed three scoring options. Playing at home and with Wejnert set to return from a minor ankle sprain, Southern should have enough to advance.

The Pick: Southern, 70-58

(20) Marlboro at (13) Shore, 6:30 p.m.

The biggest upset of the 2014 Shore Conference Tournament has a sequel set for Wednesday. Marlboro stunned Shore as a No. 25 seed last season during the opening round and will try to knock off the Blue Devils on the road again this season, albeit as less of a longshot. Shore is coming off its biggest non-divisional win of the season, a 54-53 win over Red Bank on Saturday, and have more senior influence than it did a season ago. The Blue Devils have two players in Dan Largey and Kevin Bloodgood who are 20-point threats on a nightly basis, while Jack Byrne does a little bit of everything. Sophomore Ryan Jones hit three big three-pointers in that game and Shore will need more instances of players stepping up to score alongside Largey and Bloodgood.

Marlboro, meanwhile, boasts a balanced lineup with a quality point guard, a productive center and a three-point specialist – all three of whom are seniors. Point guard George Elghoul has had a standout three weeks or so, while center Matt Ringel is a major presence in the paint on both ends, more so than any player on Shore. Senior Kenny LaRocca and sophomore P.J. Ringel are also both knock-down shooters who, if on target, are going to be able to help the Mustangs keep up with Shore’s shooters.

Both teams will dig in defensively on Wednesday, so this game will simply come down to which team can hit the three-point shot and whether or not either team has an edge from the free-throw line. With Elghoul’s ability to penetrate and Ringel being a bull in the middle, the Mustangs have the ingredients to pull off another upset. I have a feeling either Howell or Marlboro gets out of the first round and the Mustangs have a match-up they can handle, as they proved last year.

The Pick: Marlboro, 48-46

(19) Central at (14) Toms River South, 6:30 p.m.

These two teams must have known something the rest of us did not because they scheduled a game against one another for Tuesday before the season. The two local rivals are both better than they have been in some time and the proximity of the two schools will add some intensity to an already big game. Toms River South did not lose to any teams below them in the Class A South standings and just once to a team seeded worse than them in the SCT (Donovan Catholic). The Donovan Catholic loss is naturally the game to turn to for those looking for a reason to believe in Central, which also beat No. 5 Wall at home. With Toms River South off its game and Central on it, an upset would happen.

The key to this game could be the best player playing in his own gym. Toms River South has been tough at home and the Indians have the possible front-runner for the Shore Conference Player of the Year in Tymere Berry. It’s hard to envision Berry playing any worse than spectacular considering he has been a nearly automatic 25 points night in and night out this season, regardless of venue. At home, the rest of the team – led by Khaleel Greene, Tyler Fall and Francis Hearne – has been able to step up alongside Berry and Central might be better off just focusing on stopping the supporting cast.

Central has a tough senior guard in its own right in Evan Lang, who is the best bet to go shot for shot with Berry. For the Golden Eagles to win, however, they will have to do it as a team. It will be interesting to see if 6-foot-7 sophomore Elijah Barnes can disrupt Berry when he gets into the paint and if Barnes can do that to some degree, Toms River South could be in trouble. This is a tough game to call because you never know when a player is going to have an off night, but those have been few and far between for Berry.

The Pick: Toms River South, 71-66